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The Sources of Growth in a Technologically Progressive Economy: The United States, 1899–1941

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  • Gerben Bakker
  • Nicholas Crafts
  • Pieter Woltjer

Abstract

We develop new aggregate total factor productivity (TFP) growth estimates for the USA between 1899 and 1941, and sectoral estimates at the most disaggregated level so far, 38 industries. We include hard-to-measure services, and a refined measure of sectoral labour quality growth. The resulting data set supersedes Kendrick (1961), showing TFP growth lower than previously thought, broadly based across industries, and strongly variant intertemporally. The four ‘great inventions’ that Gordon (2016) highlighted were important but less dominant in TFP growth than their predecessors in the British industrial revolution. The findings also make it unlikely the 1930s had the twentieth century's highest TFP growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerben Bakker & Nicholas Crafts & Pieter Woltjer, 2019. "The Sources of Growth in a Technologically Progressive Economy: The United States, 1899–1941," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(622), pages 2267-2294.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:econjl:v:129:y:2019:i:622:p:2267-2294.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ej/uez002
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicholas Crafts, 2021. "The Sources Of British Economic Growth Since The Industrial Revolution: Not The Same Old Story," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 697-709, July.
    2. Gerben Bakker, 2021. "Infrastructure killed the electric car," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 6(10), pages 947-948, October.
    3. Cubel Montesinos, Antonio & Solaz, Marta & Sanchís Llopis, M. Teresa, 2025. "The making of a World Trade Network of capital goods after the SecondWorld War. Reversal of fortune?," IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH 48102, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola.
    4. Eoin McLaughlin & Cristián Ducoing & Les Oxley, 2024. "Tracing Sustainability in the Long Run: Genuine Savings Estimates, 1850–2018," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring and Accounting for Environmental Public Goods: A National Accounts Perspective, pages 63-100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Michael D. Bordo & Arunima Sinha, 2023. "The 1932 Federal Reserve Open‐Market Purchases as a Precedent for Quantitative Easing," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(5), pages 1177-1212, August.
    6. Fioramonti, Lorenzo & Coscieme, Luca & Costanza, Robert & Kubiszewski, Ida & Trebeck, Katherine & Wallis, Stewart & Roberts, Debra & Mortensen, Lars F. & Pickett, Kate E. & Wilkinson, Richard & Ragnar, 2022. "Wellbeing economy: An effective paradigm to mainstream post-growth policies?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    7. Damron, Will, 2025. "Gains from factory electrification: Evidence from North Carolina, 1905–1926," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    8. Alexander J. Field, 2023. "The decline of US manufacturing productivity between 1941 and 1948," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(4), pages 1163-1190, November.
    9. John Fernald & Robert Inklaar, 2025. "The UK Productivity “Puzzle” in an International Comparative Perspective," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 87(4), pages 691-710, August.
    10. Kyoji Fukao & Tatsuji Makino & Tokihiko Settsu, 2021. "Human Capital And Economic Growth In Japan: 1885–2015," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 710-740, July.
    11. Andrew Beauchamp, 2020. "Humane Capital: A Reexamination of Catholic Social Teachings in Light of the Shift to Human Capital," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 79(4), pages 1209-1240, September.
    12. Tony Ward, 2024. "Ritalin, Animal Spirits and the Productivity Puzzle," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 57(2), pages 129-142, June.
    13. Clay, Karen & Jha, Akshaya & Lewis, Joshua & Severnini, Edson, 2025. "Carbon Rollercoaster: A Historical Analysis of Decarbonization in the United States," IZA Discussion Papers 18008, IZA Network @ LISER.
    14. Gallardo Albarrán, Daniel, 2024. "The Global Sanitary Revolution in Historical Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 18754, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Klein, Alexander & Crafts, Nicholas, 2023. "Unconditional Convergence in Manufacturing Productivity across U.S. States: What the Long-Run Data Show," CEPR Discussion Papers 18065, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    JEL classification:

    • N0 - Economic History - - General

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