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Comprehensive investment and future well-being in the USA, 1869-2000

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  • Greasley, David
  • Hanley, Nicholas
  • Kunnas, Jan
  • McLaughlin, Eoin
  • Oxley, Les
  • Warde, Paul

Abstract

This paper reports long-run tests of how comprehensive investment (CI) predicts future well-being in the USA. Theory suggests that a country with a positive level of CI should experience non-declining future utility. Despite the widespread uptake of CI, previous tests of its predictive power are for short time intervals. We assemble data for increasingly-comprehensive measures of US capital back to 1869 which are used to predict future consumption per capita. Our results show that with the inclusion of natural and human capital, CI can predict changes in future well-being reasonably well over 20 years into the future. Extending CI, to include measures of intangible or social capital, yield results that closely predict consumption over 20-50 years horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Greasley, David & Hanley, Nicholas & Kunnas, Jan & McLaughlin, Eoin & Oxley, Les & Warde, Paul, 2013. "Comprehensive investment and future well-being in the USA, 1869-2000," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2013-06, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:stl:stledp:2013-06
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1893/11881
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    Cited by:

    1. Nick Hanley & Les Oxley & David Greasley & Eoin McLaughlin & Matthias Blum, 2016. "Empirical Testing of Genuine Savings as an Indicator of Weak Sustainability: A Three-Country Analysis of Long-Run Trends," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 63(2), pages 313-338, February.
    2. Blum, Matthias & Hanley, Nicholas & McLaughlin, Eoin, 2013. "Genuine savings and future well-being in Germany, 1850-2000," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2013-13, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
    3. Blum Matthias & McLaughlin Eoin & Hanley Nick, 2019. "Accounting for Sustainable Development over the Long-Run: Lessons from Germany," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 410-446, December.
    4. Juan Labat & Henry Willebald, 2019. "Do we need just one sustainable development indicator? Could Genuine Savings be that one?," International Journal of Environmental Sciences & Natural Resources, Juniper Publishers Inc., vol. 16(3), pages 78-80, January.

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