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The Emperor Has New Clothes: Empirical Tests of Mainstream Theories of Economic Growth

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  • Greasley, David
  • Hanley, Nick
  • McLaughlin, Eoin
  • Oxley, Les

Abstract

Modern macroeconomic theory utilises optimal control techniques to model the maximisation of individual well-being using a lifetime utility function. Agents face choices over current and future consumption (with resultant implied savings decisions) seeking to maximise the present value of current plus future well-being. However, such inter-temporal welfare-maximising assumptions remain empirically untested. In the work presented here we test whether welfare was in (historical) fact maximised in the US between 1870-2000 and find empirical support for the optimising basis of growth theory, but only once a comprehensive view of what constitutes a country's wealth or capital is taken into account.

Suggested Citation

  • Greasley, David & Hanley, Nick & McLaughlin, Eoin & Oxley, Les, 2014. "The Emperor Has New Clothes: Empirical Tests of Mainstream Theories of Economic Growth," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-01, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    • Handle: RePEc:edn:sirdps:589
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inter-temporal utility maximisation; modern growth theory; US; comprehensive wealth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

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