IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/stl/stledp/2014-03.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Empirical testing of genuine savings as an indicator of weak sustainability: a three-country analysis of long run trends

Author

Listed:
  • Blum, Matthias
  • Greasley, David
  • Hanley, Nicholas
  • Kunnas, Jan
  • McLaughlin, Eoin
  • Oxley, Les
  • Warde, Paul

Abstract

Genuine Savings has emerged as a widely-used indicator of sustainable development. In this paper, we use long-term data stretching back to 1870 to undertake empirical tests of the relationship between Genuine Savings (GS) and future well-being for three countries: Britain, the USA and Germany. Our tests are based on an underlying theoretical relationship between GS and changes in the present value of future consumption. Based on both single country and panel results, we find evidence supporting the existence of a cointegrating (long run equilibrium) relationship between GS and future well-being, and fail to reject the basic theoretical result on the relationship between these two macroeconomic variables. This provides some support for the GS measure of weak sustainability. We also show the effects of modelling shocks, such as World War Two and the Great Depression.

Suggested Citation

  • Blum, Matthias & Greasley, David & Hanley, Nicholas & Kunnas, Jan & McLaughlin, Eoin & Oxley, Les & Warde, Paul, 2014. "Empirical testing of genuine savings as an indicator of weak sustainability: a three-country analysis of long run trends," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2014-03, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:stl:stledp:2014-03
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1893/19802
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bohringer, Christoph & Jochem, Patrick E.P., 2007. "Measuring the immeasurable -- A survey of sustainability indices," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 1-8, June.
    2. Dietz, Simon & Neumayer, Eric, 2007. "Weak and strong sustainability in the SEEA: Concepts and measurement," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 617-626, March.
    3. Hamilton, Kirk & Clemens, Michael, 1999. "Genuine Savings Rates in Developing Countries," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 13(2), pages 333-356, May.
    4. Pemberton, Malcolm & Ulph, David, 2001. " Measuring Income and Measuring Sustainability," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 103(1), pages 25-40, March.
    5. Susana Ferreira & Mirko Moro, 2010. "On the Use of Subjective Well-Being Data for Environmental Valuation," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 46(3), pages 249-273, July.
    6. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    7. David Greasley & Les Oxley, 2010. "Clio And The Economist: Making Historians Count," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 755-774, December.
    8. Kirk Hamilton & John Hartwick, 2005. "Investing exhaustible resource rents and the path of consumption," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 615-621, May.
    9. Greasley, David & Hanley, Nicholas & Kunnas, Jan & McLaughlin, Eoin & Oxley, Les & Warde, Paul, 2013. "Comprehensive investment and future well-being in the USA, 1869-2000," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2013-06, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
    10. J. Bradford De Long and Barry Eichengreen., 1991. "The Marshall Plan: History's Most Successful Structural Adjustment Program," Economics Working Papers 91-184, University of California at Berkeley.
    11. Arrow, Kenneth J. & Dasgupta, Partha & Goulder, Lawrence H. & Mumford, Kevin J. & Oleson, Kirsten, 2012. "Sustainability and the measurement of wealth," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(03), pages 317-353, June.
    12. Allen, Robert C., 2014. "American Exceptionalism as a Problem in Global History," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 74(02), pages 309-350, June.
    13. Carter,Susan B. & Gartner,Scott Sigmund & Haines,Michael R. & Olmstead,Alan L. & Sutch,Richard & Wri (ed.), 2006. "The Historical Statistics of the United States 5 Volume Hardback Set," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521817912.
    14. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    15. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
    16. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    17. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
    18. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
    19. Ferreira, Susana & Vincent, Jeffrey R, 2005. "Genuine Savings: Leading Indicator of Sustainable Development?," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(3), pages 737-754, April.
    20. Mota, Rui Pedro & Domingos, Tiago & Martins, Victor, 2010. "Analysis of genuine saving and potential green net national income: Portugal, 1990-2005," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(10), pages 1934-1942, August.
    21. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    22. Blum, Matthias & Hanley, Nicholas & McLaughlin, Eoin, 2013. "Genuine savings and future well-being in Germany, 1850-2000," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2013-13, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
    23. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
    24. Pezzey, J.C.V.John C. V., 2004. "One-sided sustainability tests with amenities, and changes in technology, trade and population," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 613-631, July.
    25. Solow, Robert M, 1986. " On the Intergenerational Allocation of Natural Resources," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(1), pages 141-149.
    26. Weitzman, Martin L, 1997. " Sustainability and Technical Progress," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 99(1), pages 1-13, March.
    27. Greasley, David & Hanley, Nick & Kunnas, Jan & McLaughlin, Eoin & Oxley, Les & Warde, Paul, 2014. "Testing genuine savings as a forward-looking indicator of future well-being over the (very) long-run," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 171-188.
    28. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    29. Pearce, David W. & Atkinson, Giles D., 1993. "Capital theory and the measurement of sustainable development: an indicator of "weak" sustainability," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 103-108, October.
    30. By DAVID GREASLEY & LES OXLEY, 1996. "Discontinuities in competitiveness: the impact of the First World War on British industry," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 49(1), pages 82-100, February.
    31. Mota, Rui Pedro & Domingos, Tiago, 2013. "Assessment of the theory of comprehensive national accounting with data for Portugal," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 188-196.
    32. Pezzey, John C.V. & Hanley, Nick & Turner, Karen & Tinch, Dugald, 2006. "Comparing augmented sustainability measures for Scotland: Is there a mismatch?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 60-74, April.
    33. Oxley, Les & McAleer, Michael, 1993. " Econometric Issues in Macroeconomic Models with Generated Regressors," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 1-40.
    34. Dumke, Rolf H, 1990. "Reassessing the Wirtschaftswunder: Reconstruction and Postwar Growth in West Germany in an International Context," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(4), pages 451-491, Special I.
    35. Kirk Hamilton & Cees Withagen, 2007. "Savings growth and the path of utility," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(2), pages 703-713, May.
    36. Eoin McLaughlin & Nick Hanley & David Greasley & Jan Kunnas & Les Oxley & Paul Warde, 2014. "Historical wealth accounts for Britain: progress and puzzles in measuring the sustainability of economic growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 44-69.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nick Hanley & Louis Dupuy & Eoin McLaughlin, 2015. "Genuine Savings And Sustainability," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 779-806, September.
    2. Matthias Blum & Cristián Ducoing & Eoin McLaughlin, 2016. "Genuine Savings in developing and developed countries, 1900-2000," Discussion Papers in Environment and Development Economics 2016-15, University of St. Andrews, School of Geography and Sustainable Development.
    3. David Greasley & Jakob B. Madsen, 2017. "The Rise and Fall of Exceptional Australian Incomes Since 1800," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(3), pages 264-290, November.
    4. Greasley, David & McLaughlin, Eoin & Hanley, Nick & Oxley, Les, 2017. "Australia: a land of missed opportunities?," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(06), pages 674-698, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Weak sustainability; Genuine Savings; comprehensive investment; economic history; indicators; cointegration;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:stl:stledp:2014-03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Liam Delaney). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/destiuk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.