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Long-run growth empirics and new challenges for unified theory

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  • David Greasley
  • Jakob B. Madsen
  • Mark E. Wohar

Abstract

Annual estimates of productivity are reported for periods over 500 years for eight countries and for five other countries over shorter periods. One- and two-break time series models are used to investigate discontinuities in productivity growth. The results support two-break models of long-run productivity and they favour approaches to unified growth modelling with three epochs. However, the lessening of productivity gaps and the decisive shifts to higher productivity occurred in the twentieth century, chiefly in the years around the World War II. The timing of the breaks and the complexity of the historical record highlights a need for unified models to connect more closely with economic history.

Suggested Citation

  • David Greasley & Jakob B. Madsen & Mark E. Wohar, 2013. "Long-run growth empirics and new challenges for unified theory," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(28), pages 3973-3987, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:45:y:2013:i:28:p:3973-3987
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2012.741780
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    1. Gregory Clark, 2007. "Introduction to A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World," Introductory Chapters, in: A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World, Princeton University Press.
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    Cited by:

    1. Steven Bond-Smith, 2021. "The unintended consequences of increasing returns to scale in geographical economics [Investing for prosperity: skills, infrastructure and innovation]," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(5), pages 653-681.
    2. Nick Hanley & Les Oxley & David Greasley & Eoin McLaughlin & Matthias Blum, 2016. "Empirical Testing of Genuine Savings as an Indicator of Weak Sustainability: A Three-Country Analysis of Long-Run Trends," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 63(2), pages 313-338, February.
    3. Stern, David I. & Enflo, Kerstin, 2013. "Causality between energy and output in the long-run," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 135-146.
    4. Madsen, Jakob B. & Robertson, Peter E. & Ye, Longfeng, 2019. "Malthus was right: Explaining a millennium of stagnation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 51-68.
    5. Nicholas Crafts & Terence C. Mills, 2017. "Six centuries of British economic growth: a time-series perspective," European Review of Economic History, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(2), pages 141-158.
    6. Peretto, Pietro F., 2018. "Robust endogenous growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 49-77.

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