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Six centuries of British economic growth: a time-series perspective

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Listed:
  • Nicholas Crafts
  • Terence C. Mills

Abstract

This paper provides a time-series analysis of recent annual estimates of real GDP and industrial output covering 1270–1913. We show that growth can be regarded as a segmented trend-stationary process. On this basis, we find that trend growth of real GDP per person was zero prior to the 1660s but then experienced two significant accelerations, pre- and post-industrial revolution. We also find that the hallmark of the industrial revolution is a substantial increase in the trend rate of growth of industrial output rather than being an episode of difference stationary growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas Crafts & Terence C. Mills, 2017. "Six centuries of British economic growth: a time-series perspective," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 21(2), pages 141-158.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ereveh:v:21:y:2017:i:2:p:141-158.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ereh/hew020
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    Cited by:

    1. Stephen Broadberry & Bruce M. S. Campbell & Alexander Klein & Mark Overton & Bas van Leeuwen, 2018. "Clark's Malthus delusion: response to ‘Farming in England 1200–1800’," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 71(2), pages 639-664, May.
    2. Calvert Jump, Robert & Kohler, Karsten, 2022. "A history of aggregate demand and supply shocks for the United Kingdom, 1900 to 2016," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    3. Fabian Siuda & Uwe Sunde, 2021. "Disease and demographic development: the legacy of the plague," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 1-30, March.
    4. Lambert, Thomas, 2021. "The Baran Ratio, Investment, and British Economic Growth and Investment," MPRA Paper 109546, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Grajzl, Peter & Murrell, Peter, 2025. "From status to contract? A macrohistory from early-modern English caselaw and print culture," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    6. Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence, 2020. "The Race between Population and Technology: Real wages in the First Industrial Revolution," CEPR Discussion Papers 15174, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Don Bredin & Stilianos Fountas & Christos Savva, 2021. "Is British output growth related to its uncertainty? Evidence using eight centuries of data," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(3), pages 345-364, July.
    8. Prados de la Escosura, Leandro & Rodríguez-Caballero, C. Vladimir, 2022. "War, pandemics, and modern economic growth in Europe," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    9. Broadberry, Stephen & Lennard, Jason, 2024. "European business cycles and economic growth, 1300–2000," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    10. Prados de la Escosura, Leandro, 2022. "The industrial revolution, an unintended consequence of self-defence?," Journal of Global History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(1), pages 159-164, March.
    11. Lambert, Thomas, 2021. "Conjectures of English and UK Economic Surplus, Investment, Tax Revenues and Deficit Amounts from the 13th to the 19th Century," MPRA Paper 109080, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Peter Grajzl & Peter Murrell, 2023. "Of families and inheritance: law and development in England before the Industrial Revolution," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 17(3), pages 387-432, September.
    13. José Luis Martínez-González & Jordi Suriñach & Gabriel Jover & Javier Martín-Vide & Mariano Barriendos-Vallvé & Enric Tello, 2020. "Assessing climate impacts on English economic growth (1645–1740): an econometric approach," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(2), pages 233-249, May.
    14. M. Aykut Attar, 2023. "Technology and survival in preindustrial England: a Malthusian view," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(4), pages 2071-2110, October.
    15. Andersson, Malin & Baccianti, Claudio & Morgan, Julian, 2020. "Climate change and the macro economy," Occasional Paper Series 243, European Central Bank.
    16. Judy Z. Stephenson, 2020. "Working days in a London construction team in the eighteenth century: evidence from St Paul's Cathedral," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 73(2), pages 409-430, May.
    17. Imran Shah & Francesca Schmidt-Fischer & Issam Malki, 2018. "The portfolio balance channel: an analysis on the impact of quantitative easing on the US stock market," Department of Economics Working Papers 74/18, University of Bath, Department of Economics.
    18. Nicholas Crafts & Terence C Mills, 2022. "Considering the Counterfactual: Real Wages in the First Industrial Revolution," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(645), pages 1994-2006.
    19. Shah, Imran Hussain & Schmidt-Fischer, Francesca & Malki, Issam & Hatfield, Richard, 2019. "A structural break approach to analysing the impact of the QE portfolio balance channel on the US stock market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 204-220.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • N13 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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