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Pandemics and cities: Evidence from the Black Death and the long-run

Author

Listed:
  • Jedwab, Remi
  • Johnson, Noel D.
  • Koyama, Mark

Abstract

The Black Death killed 40% of Europe’s population between 1347 and 1352, making it one of the largest shocks in the history of mankind. Using a novel dataset that provides information on spatial variation in plague mortality at the city level, as well as various identification strategies, we explore the short-run and long-run impacts of Black Death mortality on city growth. On average, cities recovered their pre-plague populations within two centuries. However, aggregate convergence masked heterogeneity in urban recovery. Both of these facts are consistent with populations returning disproportionally to locations endowed with more rural and urban fixed factors of production. Land suitability and natural and historical trade networks played a vital role in recovery. Our study highlights the role played by the Black Death and physical and economic geography in determining the relative size of European cities.

Suggested Citation

  • Jedwab, Remi & Johnson, Noel D. & Koyama, Mark, 2024. "Pandemics and cities: Evidence from the Black Death and the long-run," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juecon:v:139:y:2024:i:c:s0094119023000980
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2023.103628
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Localized shocks; Path dependence; Urban resilience; Pandemics and cities; Urbanization; Economic geography; Urban mortality; Black death;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R19 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Other
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • N93 - Economic History - - Regional and Urban History - - - Europe: Pre-1913

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