Cities on pre-Columbian paths

Does the geographic distribution of pre-Columbian societies determine the location of New World cities? This paper provides evidence that a pre-colonial indigenous trail influenced the location of modern cities in southern Brazil. To distinguish the causal effects of historical settlement near the trail from the effects of geographic fundamentals that could correlate with it, I compare how population density and urbanization change with proximity to the trail in two different regions. The first region has been settled by Europeans since the 16th century, while European settlement in the second region was interrupted after a 17th-century slave raid. Proximity to the indigenous path is associated with higher population density and urbanization in the first region, but not in the second. These findings suggest a path dependence that goes back to the pre-colonial past.