Moving OpportunityLocal Connectivity and Spatial Inequality

Spatial inequality within countries is a pervasive and persistent phenomenon. Howdoes the connectivity of place determine underlying spatial inequality of opportunity?To answer this question, I derive a sufficient statistic result linking local opportunity tomarket access terms, developing a framework consistent with a broad class of spatialgeneral equilibrium models. I empirically validate this result using a novel not-on-least-cost-path identification strategy and data from historical road maps in Benin,Cameroon, and Mali covering 1970 to 2020, that I digitize. Using these estimates toparameterize a structural case of the spatial model, I show that road building alters thespatial distribution of opportunity. By considering each possible road upgrade I showthat although some roads decrease the standard deviation of opportunity by more than2%, others increase inequality by a similar amount. By fixing the spatial distribution ofopportunity I show that to achieve similar reductions in inequality by moving people, aprohibitively large number would need to migrate from low- to high-opportunity areas— between 13% and 44% of the low-opportunity areas’ population. Policymakers alsoface an equity-efficiency trade-off: 4 out of the top 10 aggregate opportunity-increasingroads alsoincreasespatial inequality of opportunity.