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Search for Multiple Equilibria in Urban Industrial Structure

  • David E. Weinstein
  • Donald R. Davis

Theories of multiple equilibria (ME) are now widespread across many fields of economics. Yet little empirical work has asked if such multiple equilibria are salient features of real economies. We examine this in the context of the Allied bombing of Japanese cities and industries in WWII in data for 114 Japanese cities in eight manufacturing industries. The data reject the existence of multiple equilibria. In the aftermath even of gargantuan shocks, a city recovers not only its population and its share of aggregate manufacturing, but even the specific industries it had before.

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Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings with number 639.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecm:nawm04:639
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  1. Donald R. Davis & David E. Weinstein, 2002. "Bones, Bombs, and Break Points: The Geography of Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1269-1289, December.
  2. Krugman, Paul & Venables, Anthony J., 1995. "Globalization and the Inequality of Nations," Working Paper Series 430, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
  3. Russell W. Cooper, 2002. "Estimation and Identification of Structural Parameters in the Presence of Multiple Equilibria," NBER Working Papers 8941, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. repec:tpr:qjecon:v:106:y:1991:i:2:p:651-67 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Murphy, Kevin M. & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1989. "Industrialization and the Big Push," Scholarly Articles 3606235, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  6. Paul A.David, 2005. "Path dependence, its critics and the quest for ‘historical economics’," Economic History 0502003, EconWPA.
  7. Masahisa Fujita & Paul Krugman & Anthony J. Venables, 2001. "The Spatial Economy: Cities, Regions, and International Trade," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262561476, June.
  8. Jordan Rappaport & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 2001. "The U.S. as a coastal nation," Research Working Paper RWP 01-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  9. Andrea Moro, 2003. "The Effect Of Statistical Discrimination On Black-White Wage Inequality: Estimating A Model With Multiple Equilibria," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 467-500, 05.
  10. Robert E. Lucas, Jr., 1999. "Externalities and Cities," Annual Meeting Plenary 1999-3, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  11. repec:tpr:qjecon:v:103:y:1988:i:3:p:441-63 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Richard Baldwin & Rikard Forslid & Philippe Martin & Gianmarco Ottaviano & Frederic Robert Nicoud, 2003. "Economic Geography and Public Policy," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00179815, HAL.
  13. repec:tpr:qjecon:v:114:y:1999:i:3:p:739-767 is not listed on IDEAS
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  1. Historical Economic Geography

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