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What Future for History Dependence in Spatial Economics?

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Abstract

History (sometimes) matters for the location and sizes of cities and neighborhood segregation patterns within cities. Together with evidence on rapid neighborhood change and self-fulfilling expectations, this implies that nature might not completely determine the spatial structure of the economy. Instead, the spatial economy might be characterized by multiple equilibria or multiple steady-state equilibrium paths, where history and expectations can play decisive roles. Better evidence on the conditions under which history matters can help improve theory and policy analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey Lin & Ferdinand Rauch, 2020. "What Future for History Dependence in Spatial Economics?," Working Papers 20-47, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:89140
    DOI: 10.21799/frbp.wp.2020.47
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    Cited by:

    1. Baldomero-Quintana, Luis & Woo-Mora, L. Guillermo & De la Rosa-Ramos, Enrique, 2025. "Infrastructures of race? Colonial indigenous segregation and contemporary land values," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    2. Barsanetti, Bruno, 2024. "Capital as an anchor of agricultural employment: Evidence from the 1975 frost," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    3. Atsushi Yamagishi & Yasuhiro Sato, 2022. "Measuring Discrimination in Spatial Equilibrium: 100 Years of Japan's Invisible Race," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1188, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    4. Accetturo, Antonio & Cascarano, Michele & de Blasio, Guido, 2024. "Pirate attacks and the shape of the Italian urban system," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    5. Muscatelli, Anton & Roy, Graeme & Trew, Alex, 2022. "Persistent States: Lessons For Scottish Devolution And Independence," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 260, pages 51-63, May.
    6. Nagy, Dávid Krisztián, 2022. "Quantitative economic geography meets history: Questions, answers and challenges," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    7. Langenmayr, Dominika & Simmler, Martin, 2024. "JUE insight: Expectations about future tax rates and firm entry," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    8. Smith, Cory & Kulka, Amrita, 2024. "Population Centers and Coordination: Evidence from County-Seat Wars," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 724, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    9. Messner, Teresa & Rumler, Fabio & Strasser, Georg, 2024. "Cross-country price dispersion: Retail network or national border?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    10. Garcia-López, Miquel-Àngel & Viladecans-Marsal, Elisabet, 2024. "The role of historic amenities in shaping cities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    11. Hanlon, W.Walker & Heblich, Stephan, 2022. "History and urban economics," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    12. Kulka, Amrita & Smith, Cory, 2024. "Population Centers and Coordination : Evidence from County-Seat Wars," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1518, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    13. Rafael González‐Val & Javier Silvestre, 2023. "War and city size: The asymmetric effects of the Spanish Civil War," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(4), pages 898-921, September.
    14. Gan Jin & Günther G. Schulze, 2024. "Historical Legacies and Urbanization: Evidence from Chinese Concessions," CESifo Working Paper Series 10976, CESifo.
    15. David Krisztián Nagy, 2020. "Quantitative economic geography meets history: Questions, answers and challenges," Economics Working Papers 1774, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2021.
    16. Messner, Teresa & Rumler, Fabio & Strasser, Georg, 2022. "Cross-country price and inflation dispersion: Retail network or national border," Single Market Economics Papers WP2022/11, Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs (European Commission), Chief Economist Team.
    17. Liu, Kang & Ren, Yi & Yang, Fei, 2024. "Do national innovation policies lead to technological specialization or diversification? The role of path dependence and spatial spillovers," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 499-520.
    18. Charlotte Bartels & Simon Jäger & Natalie Obergruber, 2024. "Long-Term Effects of Equal Sharing: Evidence from Inheritance Rules for Land," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(664), pages 3137-3172.
    19. Gomez Osorio, Camilo & Mykhnenko, Vlad, 2025. "Extraordinary African cities? Zipf’s law and the emerging African system of cities☆," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    20. Allen, Treb & Donaldson, Dave, 2022. "Persistence and path dependence: A primer," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    21. Marius Klein & Ferdinand Rauch, 2023. "Market Access and the Arrow of Time," CESifo Working Paper Series 10279, CESifo.
    22. Dávid Nagy, 2021. "Quantitative Economic Geography Meets History: Questions, Answers and Challenges," Working Papers 1249, Barcelona School of Economics.
    23. Lindgren, Erik & Pettersson-Lidbom, Per & Tyrefors, Björn, 2021. "The Causal Effect of Transport Infrastructure: Evidence from a New Historical Database," Research Papers in Economics 2021:1, Stockholm University, Department of Economics, revised 28 May 2021.
    24. Gorjian, Mahshid, 2025. "Statistical and Methodological Advances in Spatial Economics: A Comprehensive Review of Models, Empirical Strategies, and Policy Evaluation," MPRA Paper 125636, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Gianandrea Lanzara & Matteo Santacesaria, 2025. "On spatial systems of cities," Papers 2504.21819, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • N9 - Economic History - - Regional and Urban History
    • R1 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics

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