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JUE Insight: Understanding spatial variation in COVID-19 across the United States

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  • Desmet, Klaus
  • Wacziarg, Romain

Abstract

What factors explain spatial variation in the severity of COVID-19 across the United States? To answer this question, we analyze the correlates of COVID-19 cases and deaths across US counties. We document four sets of facts. First, effective density is an important and persistent determinant of COVID-19 severity. Second, counties with more nursing home residents, lower income, higher poverty rates, and a greater presence of African Americans and Hispanics are disproportionately impacted, and these effects show no sign of disappearing over time. Third, the effect of certain characteristics, such as the distance to major international airports and the share of elderly individuals, dies out over time. Fourth, Trump-leaning counties are less severely affected early on, but later suffer from a large severity penalty.

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  • Desmet, Klaus & Wacziarg, Romain, 2022. "JUE Insight: Understanding spatial variation in COVID-19 across the United States," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juecon:v:127:y:2022:i:c:s0094119021000140
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2021.103332
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    2. Andrew J. Curtis & Jayakrishnan Ajayakumar & Jacqueline Curtis & Sam Brown, 2022. "Spatial Syndromic Surveillance and COVID-19 in the U.S.: Local Cluster Mapping for Pandemic Preparedness," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-15, July.
    3. Jedwab, Remi & Johnson, Noel D. & Koyama, Mark, 2024. "Pandemics and cities: Evidence from the Black Death and the long-run," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    4. Leal, Caroline Ferreira & Silveira Neto, Raul da Mota, 2023. "More Spatial balance with a health calamity? Accounting for the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Brazilian regional income inequality," Revista Brasileira de Estudos Regionais e Urbanos, Associação Brasileira de Estudos Regionais e Urbanos (ABER), vol. 17(4), pages 462-484.
    5. Hilary Silver & Rebecca Morris, 2023. "Homelessness, Politics, and Policy: Predicting Spatial Variation in COVID-19 Cases and Deaths," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-13, February.
    6. Deng, Yongheng & Meng, Lina & Zhou, Yinggang, 2022. "The effectiveness and costs of nonpharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 containment: A border discontinuous difference-in-difference approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    7. Cooper, Daniel & Garga, Vaishali & Luengo-Prado, María José & Tang, Jenny, 2023. "The mitigating effect of masks on the spread of Covid-19," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).

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