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Estimating and Simulating a SIRD Model of COVID-19 for Many Countries, States, and Cities

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  • Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús
  • Jones, Chad

Abstract

We use data on deaths in New York City, various U.S. states, and various countries around the world to estimate a standard epidemiological model of COVID-19. We allow for a time-varying contact rate in order to capture behavioral and policy-induced changes associated with social distancing. We simulate the model forward to consider possible futures for various countries, states, and cities, including the potential impact of herd immunity on re-opening. Our current baseline mortality rate (IFR) is assumed to be 0.8% but we recognize there is substantial uncertainty about this number. Our model fits the death data equally well with alternative mortality rates of 0.3% or 1.0%, so this parameter is unidentified in our data. However, its value matters enormously for the extent to which various places can relax social distancing without spurring a resurgence of deaths.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Jones, Chad, 2020. "Estimating and Simulating a SIRD Model of COVID-19 for Many Countries, States, and Cities," CEPR Discussion Papers 14711, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14711
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sird model; Covid-19; Estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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