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Estimating the Fraction of Unreported Infections in Epidemics with a Known Epicenter: an Application to COVID-19

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Listed:
  • Ali Hortacsu

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Chicago)

  • Jiarui Liu

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

  • Timothy Schwieg

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

Abstract

We develop an analytically tractable method to estimate the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter and estimate the number of unreported COVID-19 infections in the U.S. during the ?rst half of March 2020. Our method utilizes the covariation in initial reported infections across U.S. regions and the number of travelers to these regions from the epicenter, along with the results of an early randomized testing study in Iceland. Using our estimates of the number of unreported infections, which are substantially larger than the number of reported infections, we also provide estimates for the infection fatality rate using data on reported COVID-19 fatalities from U.S. counties.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Hortacsu & Jiarui Liu & Timothy Schwieg, 2020. "Estimating the Fraction of Unreported Infections in Epidemics with a Known Epicenter: an Application to COVID-19," CeMMAP working papers CWP21/20, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:ifs:cemmap:21/20
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karl M. Aspelund & Michael C. Droste & James H. Stock & Christopher D. Walker, 2020. "Identification and Estimation of Undetected COVID-19 Cases Using Testing Data from Iceland," NBER Working Papers 27528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Fernando Alvarez & David Argente, 2020. "A Simple Planning Problem for COVID-19 Lockdown," Working Papers 2020-34, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    3. Martin S Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics [Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high frequency data]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5149-5187.
    4. James H. Stock, 2020. "Data Gaps and the Policy Response to the Novel Coronavirus," NBER Working Papers 26902, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. David Berger & Kyle Herkenhoff & Chengdai Huang & Simon Mongey, 2022. "Testing and Reopening in an SEIR Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 1-21, January.
    6. David Berger & Kyle Herkenhoff & Chengdai Huang & Simon Mongey, 2022. "Testing and Reopening in an SEIR Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 1-21, January.
    7. Korolev, Ivan, 2021. "Identification and estimation of the SEIRD epidemic model for COVID-19," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(1), pages 63-85.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C00 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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