IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2109.10009.html

An AI-assisted Economic Model of Endogenous Mobility and Infectious Diseases: The Case of COVID-19 in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Lin William Cong
  • Ke Tang
  • Bing Wang
  • Jingyuan Wang

Abstract

We build a deep-learning-based SEIR-AIM model integrating the classical Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed epidemiology model with forecast modules of infection, community mobility, and unemployment. Through linking Google's multi-dimensional mobility index to economic activities, public health status, and mitigation policies, our AI-assisted model captures the populace's endogenous response to economic incentives and health risks. In addition to being an effective predictive tool, our analyses reveal that the long-term effective reproduction number of COVID-19 equilibrates around one before mass vaccination using data from the United States. We identify a "policy frontier" and identify reopening schools and workplaces to be the most effective. We also quantify protestors' employment-value-equivalence of the Black Lives Matter movement and find that its public health impact to be negligible.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin William Cong & Ke Tang & Bing Wang & Jingyuan Wang, 2021. "An AI-assisted Economic Model of Endogenous Mobility and Infectious Diseases: The Case of COVID-19 in the United States," Papers 2109.10009, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2109.10009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2109.10009
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. A. P. Heesterbeek & K. Dietz, 1996. "The concept of Ro in epidemic theory," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 50(1), pages 89-110, March.
    2. Larson, William D. & Sinclair, Tara M., 2022. "Nowcasting unemployment insurance claims in the time of COVID-19," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 635-647.
    3. Fernando Alvarez & David Argente, 2020. "A Simple Planning Problem for COVID-19 Lockdown," Working Papers 2020-34, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    4. Greg Kaplan & Benjamin Moll & Giovanni L. Violante, 2020. "The Great Lockdown and the Big Stimulus: Tracing the Pandemic Possibility Frontier for the U.S," NBER Working Papers 27794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Cooper, Ian & Mondal, Argha & Antonopoulos, Chris G., 2020. "A SIR model assumption for the spread of COVID-19 in different communities," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    6. Andrew Atkeson, 2020. "What Will be the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios," Staff Report 595, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    7. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Jones, Charles I., 2022. "Estimating and simulating a SIRD Model of COVID-19 for many countries, states, and cities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    8. David Berger & Kyle Herkenhoff & Chengdai Huang & Simon Mongey, 2022. "Testing and Reopening in an SEIR Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 1-21, January.
    9. Martin S Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics [Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high frequency data]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5149-5187.
    10. Callum Jones & Thomas Philippon & Venky Venkateswaran, 2021. "Optimal Mitigation Policies in a Pandemic: Social Distancing and Working from Home [A simple planning problem for covid-19 lockdown]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5188-5223.
    11. Maria Polyakova & Geoffrey Kocks & Victoria Udalova & Amy Finkelstein, 2020. "Initial economic damage from the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States is more widespread across ages and geographies than initial mortality impacts," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(45), pages 27934-27934, November.
    12. Loertscher, Simon & Muir, Ellen V., 2021. "Road to recovery: Managing an epidemic," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    13. Padhan, Rakesh & Prabheesh, K.P., 2021. "The economics of COVID-19 pandemic: A survey," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 220-237.
    14. Jessica Gallant & Kory Kroft & Fabian Lange & Matthew J. Notowidigdo, 2020. "Temporary Unemployment and Labor Market Dynamics during the COVID-19 Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(3 (Fall)), pages 167-226.
    15. Daron Acemoglu & Victor Chernozhukov & Ivàn Werning & Michael D. Whinston, 2020. "A Multi-Risk SIR Model with Optimally Targeted Lockdown," CeMMAP working papers CWP14/20, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Garriga, Carlos & Manuelli, Rody & Sanghi, Siddhartha, 2022. "Optimal management of an epidemic: Lockdown, vaccine and value of life," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. Gopal K. Basak & Chandramauli Chakraborty & Pranab Kumar Das, 2021. "Optimal Lockdown Strategy in a Pandemic: An Exploratory Analysis for Covid-19," Papers 2109.02512, arXiv.org.
    3. Elisa Giannone & Nuno Paixao & Xinle Pang, 2021. "The Geography of Pandemic Containment," Staff Working Papers 21-26, Bank of Canada.
    4. Miguel Casares & Paul Gomme & Hashmat Khan, 2022. "COVID‐19 pandemic and economic scenarios for Ontario," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 503-539, February.
    5. Giorgio Fabbri & Salvatore Federico & Davide Fiaschi & Fausto Gozzi, 2024. "Mobility decisions, economic dynamics and epidemic," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 77(1), pages 495-531, February.
    6. V. V. Chari & Rishabh Kirpalani & Christopher Phelan, 2021. "The Hammer and the Scalpel: On the Economics of Indiscriminate versus Targeted Isolation Policies during Pandemics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 42, pages 1-14, October.
    7. Vandenbroucke Guillaume, 2022. "The Mechanics of Individually- and Socially-Optimal Decisions during an Epidemic," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 131-158, January.
    8. Marina Azzimonti-Renzo & Alessandra Fogli & Fabrizio Perri & Mark Ponder, 2020. "Pandemic Control in ECON-EPI Networks," Staff Report 609, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    9. Timo Boppart & Karl Harmenberg & John Hassler & Per Krusell & Jonna Olsson, 2020. "Integrated epi-econ assessment," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 297, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    10. David Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2022. "Supply and Demand in Disaggregated Keynesian Economies with an Application to the COVID-19 Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1397-1436, May.
    11. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Gabriel Mihalache, 2024. "Deadly Debt Crises: COVID-19 in Emerging Markets," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(3), pages 1243-1290.
    12. Saito, Yuta & Sakamoto, Jun, 2021. "Asset pricing during pandemic lockdown," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    13. Çakmaklı, Cem & Demiralp, Selva & Özcan, Şebnem Kalemli & Yeşiltaş, Sevcan & Yıldırım, Muhammed A., 2023. "COVID-19 and emerging markets: A SIR model, demand shocks and capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    14. Farhi, Emmanuel & Baqaee, David Rezza, 2020. "Nonlinear Production Networks with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 14742, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Famiglietti, Matthew & Leibovici, Fernando, 2022. "The impact of health and economic policies on the spread of COVID-19 and economic activity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    16. Bairoliya, Neha & İmrohoroğlu, Ayşe, 2023. "Macroeconomic consequences of stay-at-home policies during the COVID-19 pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    17. Hu, Ju & Zhou, Zhen, 2022. "Disclosure in epidemics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    18. Giagheddu, Marta & Papetti, Andrea, 2023. "The macroeconomics of age-varying epidemics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    19. Daron Acemoglu & Ali Makhdoumi & Azarakhsh Malekian & Asuman Ozdaglar, 2024. "Testing, Voluntary Social Distancing, and the Spread of an Infection," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 72(2), pages 533-548, March.
    20. Ichino, Andrea & Favero, Carlo A. & Rustichini, Aldo, 2020. "Restarting the economy while saving lives under Covid-19," CEPR Discussion Papers 14664, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2109.10009. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.