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Are Zero-Covid Policies Optimal?

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  • Andrew Abel

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • Stavros Panageas

    (University of California Los Angeles)

Abstract

We analyze the impact of public health policy on the spread of a disease using a version of the SIR model that includes vital statistics, waning immunity, and vaccination. This model is rich enough to accommodate endemic steady states and disease-free steady states. We derive social distancing and vaccination policies that maximize an objective function that penalizes lost output resulting from social distancing, deaths resulting from the disease, and the cost of vaccination. Even though a disease-free steady state is attainable, optimal policy leads to an endemic steady state, albeit with a small number of deaths and negligible loss of output. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Abel & Stavros Panageas, 2024. "Are Zero-Covid Policies Optimal?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 53, pages 47-70, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:22-175
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2024.01.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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