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Waning Immunity and the Second Wave: Some Projections for SARS-CoV-2

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  • Giannitsarou, Chryssi
  • Kissler, Stephen
  • Toxvaerd, Flavio

Abstract

This paper offers projections of future transmission dynamics for SARS-CoV-2 in an SEIRS model with demographics and waning immunity. In a stylized optimal control setting calibrated to the USA, we show that the disease is endemic in steady state and that its dynamics are characterized by damped oscillations. The magnitude of the oscillations depends on how fast immunity wanes. The optimal social distancing policy both curbs peak prevalence and postpones the infection waves relative to the uncontrolled dynamics. Last, we perform sensitivity analysis with respect to the duration of immunity, the infection fatality rate and the planning horizon.

Suggested Citation

  • Giannitsarou, Chryssi & Kissler, Stephen & Toxvaerd, Flavio, 2020. "Waning Immunity and the Second Wave: Some Projections for SARS-CoV-2," CEPR Discussion Papers 14852, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14852
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; Economic epidemiology; Social distancing; Waning immunity; Optimal policy for infection control; Seirs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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