IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedlwp/88154.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Endogenous Social Distancing in an Epidemic

Author

Listed:
  • Guillaume Vandenbroucke

Abstract

I present a model where work implies social interactions and the spread of a disease is described by an SIR-type framework where both susceptible and infectious are asymptomatic. Upon the outbreak of a disease a lower contact rate can be achieved at the cost of lower consumption. Individuals do not internalize the effects of their decisions on the evolution of the epidemic while the planner does. Specifically, the planner internalizes that a low contact rate early in the epidemic implies a low stock of infectious in the future; and a low stock of infectious in the future permits an increase in the contact rate without risking additional infections. Since a low contact rate is associated with low consumption, the planner effectively substitutes consumption early in the epidemic for consumption later. The individual's response does not, hence the planner obtains a flatter infection curve than that generated by the individual's response, even though the planner's objective is not to "flatten the curve."

Suggested Citation

  • Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2020. "Endogenous Social Distancing in an Epidemic," Working Papers 2020-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:88154
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2020.013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://s3.amazonaws.com/real.stlouisfed.org/wp/2020/2020-013.pdf
    File Function: Full Text
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.20955/wp.2020.013?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Weber, Michael, 2020. "Labor Markets During the Covid-19 Crisis: A Preliminary View," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt7rx7t91p, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    2. Julian Kozlowski & Laura Veldkamp & Venky Venkateswaran, 2020. "Scarring Body and Mind: The Long-Term Belief-Scarring Effects of COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 27439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Andrew Glover & Jonathan Heathcote & Dirk Krueger & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2020. "Health versus Wealth: On the Distributional Effects of Controlling a Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 27046, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Carlos Garriga & Rody Manuelli & Siddhartha Sanghi, 2020. "Optimal Management of an Epidemic: Lockdown, Vaccine and Value of Life," Working Papers 2020-031, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    5. Gonzalez-Eiras, Martin & Niepelt, Dirk, 2020. "On the Optimal "Lockdown" During an Epidemic," CEPR Discussion Papers 14612, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. David Berger & Kyle Herkenhoff & Simon Mongey, 2020. "An SEIR Infectious Disease Model with Testing and Conditional Quarantine," Working Papers 2020-017, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    7. Fang, Hanming & Wang, Long & Yang, Yang, 2020. "Human mobility restrictions and the spread of the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    8. Andrew Atkeson, 2020. "What Will be the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios," Staff Report 595, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    9. Callum J. Jones & Thomas Philippon & Venky Venkateswaran, 2020. "Optimal Mitigation Policies in a Pandemic: Social Distancing and Working from Home," NBER Working Papers 26984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Faria-e-Castro, Miguel, 2021. "Fiscal policy during a pandemic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    11. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones & Peter J. Klenow, 2020. "Trading Off Consumption and COVID-19 Deaths," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 42(1), pages 1-14, June.
    12. Christopher Avery & William Bossert & Adam Thomas Clark & Glenn Ellison & Sara Ellison, 2020. "Policy Implications of Models of the Spread of Coronavirus: Perspectives and Opportunities for Economists," CESifo Working Paper Series 8293, CESifo.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Birinci, Serdar & Karahan, Fatih & Mercan, Yusuf & See, Kurt, 2021. "Labor market policies during an epidemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    2. De Santis, Roberto A. & Van der Veken, Wouter, 2020. "Forecasting macroeconomic risk in real time: Great and Covid-19 Recessions," Working Paper Series 2436, European Central Bank.
    3. Timo Boppart & Karl Harmenberg & John Hassler & Per Krusell & Jonna Olsson, 2020. "Integrated Epi-Econ Assessment," NBER Working Papers 28282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Christian A. Moser & Pierre Yared, 2020. "Pandemic Lockdown: The Role of Government Commitment," NBER Working Papers 27062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Ricardo J. Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2020. "A Model of Endogenous Risk Intolerance and LSAPs: Asset Prices and Aggregate Demand in a “Covid-19” Shock," NBER Working Papers 27044, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Marina Azzimonti-Renzo & Alessandra Fogli & Fabrizio Perri & Mark Ponder, 2020. "Pandemic Control in ECON-EPI Networks," Staff Report 609, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    7. Fajgelbaum, Pablo & Khandelwal, Amit & Kim, Wookun & Mantovani, Cristiano & Schaal, Edouard, 2020. "Optimal Lockdown in a Commuting Network," CEPR Discussion Papers 14923, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. De Santis, Roberto A. & Van der Veken, Wouter, 2020. "Macroeconomic risks across the globe due to the Spanish Flu," Working Paper Series 2466, European Central Bank.
    9. Michael Barnett & Greg Buchak & Constantine Yannelis, 2020. "Epidemic Responses Under Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 27289, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Dirk Krueger & Harald Uhlig & Taojun Xie, 2020. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Reallocation in an Epidemic: Evaluating the “Swedish Solution”," NBER Working Papers 27047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Gabriel P. Mihalache, 2020. "Deadly Debt Crises: COVID-19 in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 27275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Christopher Cotton & Bahman Kashi & Huw Lloyd-Ellis & Frederic Tremblay, 2020. "Quantifying the Economic Impacts of COVID-19 Policy Responses on Canada's Provinces in (Almost) Real Time," Working Paper 1441, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    13. Cem Çakmaklı & Selva Demiralp & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Sevcan Yesiltas & Muhammed A. Yildirim, 2020. "COVID-19 and Emerging Markets: A SIR Model, Demand Shocks and Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 27191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Guimarães, Luís, 2021. "Antibody tests: They are more important than we thought," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    15. Daron Acemoglu & Ali Makhdoumi & Azarakhsh Malekian & Asuman Ozdaglar, 2020. "Testing, Voluntary Social Distancing and the Spread of an Infection," NBER Working Papers 27483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Brodeur, Abel & Clark, Andrew E. & Fleche, Sarah & Powdthavee, Nattavudh, 2021. "COVID-19, lockdowns and well-being: Evidence from Google Trends," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    17. Louis-Philippe Beland & Abel Brodeur & Taylor Wright, 2020. "COVID-19, Stay-at-Home Orders and Employment: Evidence from CPS Data," Carleton Economic Papers 20-04, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 19 May 2020.
    18. Martín Gonzalez-Eiras & Dirk Niepelt, 2020. "Optimally Controlling an Epidemic," CESifo Working Paper Series 8770, CESifo.
    19. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran & Alessandro Rebucci, 2020. "Voluntary and Mandatory Social Distancing: Evidence on COVID-19 Exposure Rates from Chinese Provinces and Selected Countries," Globalization Institute Working Papers 382, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    20. Jesper Akesson & Sam Ashworth-Hayes & Robert Hahn & Robert D. Metcalfe & Itzhak Rasooly, 2020. "Fatalism, Beliefs, and Behaviors During the COVID-19 Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 27245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:88154. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbslus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbslus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.