IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cfi/fseres/cf618.html

Optimal Lockdown Policy with Virus Mutation

Author

Listed:
  • Quentin Batista

    (Amazon Japan, Inc.)

  • Masakazu Emoto

    (Hitotsubashi University)

  • Naoki Maezono

    (The University of Tokyo)

  • Taisuke Nakata

    (The University of Tokyo)

Abstract

We examine the implications of virus mutation for optimal lockdown policy in an epimacro model. We consider three ways of modelling virus mutation—one deterministic setup and two stochastic setups featuring a two-state and three-state Markov process. We find that the effects of virus mutation are asymmetric. In particular, a future reduction in the transmission rate increases lockdown intensity by more than a future rise in the transmission rate lowers it. As a corollary to this asymmetry, an increase in uncertainty about future mutation is non-neutral and reduces lockdown intensity under the optimal policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Quentin Batista & Masakazu Emoto & Naoki Maezono & Taisuke Nakata, 2026. "Optimal Lockdown Policy with Virus Mutation," CARF F-Series CARF-F-618, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    • Handle: RePEc:cfi:fseres:cf618
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.carf.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/wp/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/F618.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. V. V. Chari & Rishabh Kirpalani & Christopher Phelan, 2021. "The Hammer and the Scalpel: On the Economics of Indiscriminate versus Targeted Isolation Policies during Pandemics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 42, pages 1-14, October.
    2. Glover, Andrew & Heathcote, Jonathan & Krueger, Dirk, 2022. "Optimal age-Based vaccination and economic mitigation policies for the second phase of the covid-19 pandemic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    3. Bandyopadhyay, Siddhartha & Chatterjee, Kalyan & Das, Kaustav & Roy, Jaideep, 2021. "Learning versus habit formation: Optimal timing of lockdown for disease containment," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    4. Federico, Salvatore & Ferrari, Giorgio, 2021. "Taming the spread of an epidemic by lockdown policies," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    5. Michael Barnett & Greg Buchak & Constantine Yannelis, 2023. "Epidemic responses under uncertainty," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 120(2), pages 2208111120-, January.
    6. Fu, Yuting & Jin, Hanqing & Xiang, Haitao & Wang, Ning, 2022. "Optimal lockdown policy for vaccination during COVID-19 pandemic," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    7. Facundo Piguillem & Liyan Shi, 2022. "Optimal Covid-19 Quarantine and Testing Policies," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(647), pages 2534-2562.
    8. Farboodi, Maryam & Jarosch, Gregor & Shimer, Robert, 2021. "Internal and external effects of social distancing in a pandemic," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    9. Christian Gollier, 2020. "Pandemic economics: optimal dynamic confinement under uncertainty and learning," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 45(2), pages 80-93, September.
    10. Daron Acemoglu & Victor Chernozhukov & Iván Werning & Michael D. Whinston, 2021. "Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multigroup SIR Model," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 487-502, December.
    11. Fernando Alvarez & David Argente & Francesco Lippi, 2021. "A Simple Planning Problem for COVID-19 Lock-down, Testing, and Tracing," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 367-382, September.
    12. Garriga, Carlos & Manuelli, Rody & Sanghi, Siddhartha, 2022. "Optimal management of an epidemic: Lockdown, vaccine and value of life," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    13. Fabien Prieur & Weihua Ruan & Benteng Zou, 2024. "Optimal lockdown and vaccination policies to contain the spread of a mutating infectious disease," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 77(1), pages 75-126, February.
    14. Makris, M. & Toxvaerd, F., 2020. "Great Expectations: Social Distancing in Anticipation of Pharmaceutical Innovations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2097, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    15. Callum Jones & Thomas Philippon & Venky Venkateswaran, 2021. "Optimal Mitigation Policies in a Pandemic: Social Distancing and Working from Home [A simple planning problem for covid-19 lockdown]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5188-5223.
    16. Gonzalez-Eiras, Martín & Niepelt, Dirk, 2025. "A tractable model of epidemic control and equilibrium dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    17. Martin Bodenstein & Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Guerrieri, 2022. "Social distancing and supply disruptions in a pandemic," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(2), pages 681-721, May.
    18. Timo Boppart & Karl Harmenberg & John Hassler & Per Krusell & Jonna Olsson, 2025. "Integrated epi‐econ assessment: Quantitative theory," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 16(1), pages 89-131, January.
    19. Glover, Andrew & Heathcote, Jonathan & Krueger, Dirk & Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor, 2023. "Health versus wealth: On the distributional effects of controlling a pandemic," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 34-59.
    20. David Berger & Kyle Herkenhoff & Chengdai Huang & Simon Mongey, 2022. "Testing and Reopening in an SEIR Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 1-21, January.
    21. Martin S Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics [Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high frequency data]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5149-5187.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Quentin Batista & Masakazu Emoto & Naoki Maezono & Taisuke Nakata, 2026. "Optimal Lockdown Policy with Virus Mutation," Working Papers e221, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    2. Glover, Andrew & Heathcote, Jonathan & Krueger, Dirk & Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor, 2023. "Health versus wealth: On the distributional effects of controlling a pandemic," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 34-59.
    3. Francesco Flaviano Russo, 2023. "Epidemics and policy: the dismal trade-offs," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 40(2), pages 561-588, July.
    4. Hongtao Li & Taisuke Nakata & Hiroki Sakamoto & Hiroyuki Uneya, 2026. "Lockdown Policy Rules with a Hospital Capacity Constraint," CARF F-Series CARF-F-620, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    5. V. V. Chari & Rishabh Kirpalani & Christopher Phelan, 2021. "The Hammer and the Scalpel: On the Economics of Indiscriminate versus Targeted Isolation Policies during Pandemics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 42, pages 1-14, October.
    6. Sewon Hur, 2023. "The Distributional Effects Of Covid‐19 And Optimal Mitigation Policies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(1), pages 261-294, February.
    7. Lukasz Rachel, 2025. "The second wave," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 29(1), pages 87-113, February.
    8. Giagheddu, Marta & Papetti, Andrea, 2023. "The macroeconomics of age-varying epidemics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    9. Boucekkine, Raouf & Chakraborty, Shankha & Goenka, Aditya & Liu, Lin, 2024. "Economic epidemiological modelling: A progress report," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    10. Fabien Prieur & Weihua Ruan & Benteng Zou, 2024. "Optimal lockdown and vaccination policies to contain the spread of a mutating infectious disease," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 77(1), pages 75-126, February.
    11. Yasushi Iwamoto, 2021. "Welfare economics of managing an epidemic: an exposition," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 72(4), pages 537-579, October.
    12. Daron Acemoglu & Ali Makhdoumi & Azarakhsh Malekian & Asuman Ozdaglar, 2024. "Testing, Voluntary Social Distancing, and the Spread of an Infection," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 72(2), pages 533-548, March.
    13. Garriga, Carlos & Manuelli, Rody & Sanghi, Siddhartha, 2022. "Optimal management of an epidemic: Lockdown, vaccine and value of life," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    14. Timo Boppart & Karl Harmenberg & John Hassler & Per Krusell & Jonna Olsson, 2025. "Integrated epi‐econ assessment: Quantitative theory," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 16(1), pages 89-131, January.
    15. Alessandro Calvia & Fausto Gozzi & Francesco Lippi & Giovanni Zanco, 2024. "A simple planning problem for COVID-19 lockdown: a dynamic programming approach," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 77(1), pages 169-196, February.
    16. Guimarães, Luís, 2021. "Antibody tests: They are more important than we thought," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    17. Bairoliya, Neha & İmrohoroğlu, Ayşe, 2023. "Macroeconomic consequences of stay-at-home policies during the COVID-19 pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    18. Hausmann, Ricardo & Schetter, Ulrich, 2022. "Horrible trade-offs in a pandemic: Poverty, fiscal space, policy, and welfare," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    19. Hongtao Li & Taisuke Nakata & Hiroki Sakamoto & Hiroyuki Uneya, 2026. "Lockdown Policy Rules with a Hospital Capacity Constraint," Working Papers e223, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    20. Glover, Andrew & Heathcote, Jonathan & Krueger, Dirk, 2022. "Optimal age-Based vaccination and economic mitigation policies for the second phase of the covid-19 pandemic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cfi:fseres:cf618. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/catokjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.