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Fetal Shock or Selection? The 1918 Influenza Pandemic and Human Capital Development

Author

Listed:
  • Brian Beach
  • Joseph P. Ferrie
  • Martin H. Saavedra

Abstract

Almond (2006) argues that in utero exposure to the 1918 influenza pandemic lowered socioeconomic status in adulthood, whereas Brown & Thomas (2018) find that the effect disappears after controlling for parental characteristics of the 1919 birth cohort. We link microdata from the 1920 and 1930 censuses to WWII enlistment records and city-level in uenza data. This allows us to adopt an empirical approach that overcomes the selection concerns raised by Brown & Thomas (2018). Results indicate that in the absence of the pandemic, the 1919 birth cohort would have been more likely to graduate from high school, an effect that is largely unaffected by including parental controls and city-specific time trends. Adding household fixed effects (and thus exploiting variation among brothers) yields similar but somewhat larger results.

Suggested Citation

  • Brian Beach & Joseph P. Ferrie & Martin H. Saavedra, 2018. "Fetal Shock or Selection? The 1918 Influenza Pandemic and Human Capital Development," NBER Working Papers 24725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24725
    Note: AG CH DAE HE LS
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    Cited by:

    1. Joël Floris & Laurent Kaiser & Harald Mayr & Kaspar Staub & Ulrich Woitek, 2019. "Survival of the weakest? Culling evidence from the 1918 flu pandemic," ECON - Working Papers 316, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    2. Clay, Karen & Lewis, Joshua & Severnini, Edson R., 2019. "What Explains Cross-City Variation in Mortality During the 1918 Influenza Pandemic? Evidence from 438 U.S. Cities," IZA Discussion Papers 12177, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • J0 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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