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Negative Shocks and Mass Persecutions: Evidence from the Black Death

Listed author(s):
  • Remi Jedwab

    (George Washington University)

  • Mark Koyama

    (George Mason University)

  • Noel Johnson

    (George Mason University)

In this paper we study the Black Death persecutions (1347-1352) against Jews in order to shed light on the factors determining when a minority group will face persecution. We develop a theoretical framework which predicts that negative shocks increase the likelihood that minorities are scapegoated and persecuted. By contrast, as the shocks become more severe, persecution probability may actually decrease if there are eco- nomic complementarities between the majority and minority groups. We compile city- level data on Black Death mortality and Jewish persecution. At an aggregate level we find that scapegoating led to an increase in the baseline probability of a persecution. However, at the city-level, locations which experienced higher plague mortality rates were less likely to engage in persecutions. Furthermore, persecutions were more likely in cities with a history of antisemitism (consistent with scapegoating) and less likely in cities where Jews played an important economic role (consistent with inter-group complementarities).

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File URL: https://www2.gwu.edu/~iiep/assets/docs/papers/2017WP/JedwabIIEPWP2017-4.pdf
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Paper provided by The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy in its series Working Papers with number 2017-4.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation:
Handle: RePEc:gwi:wpaper:2017-4
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.gwu.edu/~iiep/
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