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Winter is Coming: The Long-Run Effects of Climate Change on Conflict, 1400-1900

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  • Qian, Nancy
  • Iyigun, Murat
  • Nunn, Nathan

Abstract

This paper investigates the long-run effects of climate change on conflict by examining cooling from 1400-1900 CE, a period that includes most of the Little Ice Age. We construct a geo-referenced and digitized database of conflicts in Europe, North Africa, and the Near East from 1400-1900, which we merge with historical temperature data. We first show that during this time, cooling is associated with increased conflict. Then, turning to the dynamics of cooling, we allow the effects of cooling over a fifty-year period to depend on the extent of cooling during the preceding fifty-year period. We find that the effect of cooling on conflict is significantly larger if the same location experienced cooling during the preceding period. We interpret this as evidence that the adverse effect of climate change intensifies with its duration.

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  • Qian, Nancy & Iyigun, Murat & Nunn, Nathan, 2017. "Winter is Coming: The Long-Run Effects of Climate Change on Conflict, 1400-1900," CEPR Discussion Papers 11760, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11760
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    Cited by:

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    2. Adeel Malik & Rinchan Ali Mirza & Faiz Ur Rehman, 2023. "Frontier governmentality," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2023-42, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Damette, Olivier & Goutte, Stéphane, 2023. "Beyond climate and conflict relationships: New evidence from a Copula-based analysis on an historical perspective," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 295-323.
    4. Nicolas Berman & Mathieu Couttenier & Raphael Soubeyran, 2021. "Fertile Ground for Conflict," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 82-127.
    5. Erin Llwyd Owain & Mark Andrew Maslin, 2018. "Assessing the relative contribution of economic, political and environmental factors on past conflict and the displacement of people in East Africa," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(1), pages 1-9, December.
    6. Oeindrila Dube & S.P. Harish, 2017. "Queens," NBER Working Papers 23337, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Matt E. Ryan, 2020. "The heat: temperature, police behavior and the enforcement of law," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 187-203, April.
    8. Bosker, Maarten, 2022. "City origins," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    9. Ticku, R. & Shrivastava, A. & Iyer, S., 2018. "Economic Shocks and Temple Desecrations in Medieval India," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1862, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    10. Barber, Luke & Jetter, Michael & Krieger, Tim, 2023. "Foreshadowing Mars: Religiosity and Pre-enlightenment Warfare," IZA Discussion Papers 16586, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Paola Giuliano & Nathan Nunn, 2021. "Understanding Cultural Persistence and Change [Cultural Assimilation During the Age of Mass Migration]," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 88(4), pages 1541-1581.
    12. Leonardo M. Klüppel & Lamar Pierce & Jason A. Snyder, 2018. "Perspective—The Deep Historical Roots of Organization and Strategy: Traumatic Shocks, Culture, and Institutions," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(4), pages 702-721, August.
    13. Seth G. Benzell & Kevin Cooke, 2021. "A Network of Thrones: Kinship and Conflict in Europe, 1495–1918," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 102-133, July.
    14. Gautam Hazarika & Chandan Kumar Jha & Sudipta Sarangi, 2019. "Ancestral ecological endowments and missing women," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(4), pages 1101-1123, October.
    15. Murat Iyigun & Nathan Nunn & Nancy Qian, 2017. "The Long-run Effects of Agricultural Productivity on Conflict, 1400-1900," NBER Working Papers 24066, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Xinde Ji & Kelly M. Cobourn, 2021. "Weather Fluctuations, Expectation Formation, and Short-Run Behavioral Responses to Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 78(1), pages 77-119, January.
    17. Remi Jedwab & Noel D. Johnson & Mark Koyama, 2019. "Negative shocks and mass persecutions: evidence from the Black Death," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 345-395, December.
    18. Zhu, J., 2018. "The agricultural root of innovation in China," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277219, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    19. Adel Benhamed & Yousif Osman & Ousama Ben-Salha & Zied Jaidi, 2023. "Unveiling the Spatial Effects of Climate Change on Economic Growth: International Evidence," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-20, May.
    20. Paola Giuliano & Nathan Nunn, 2021. "Understanding Cultural Persistence and Change [Cultural Assimilation During the Age of Mass Migration]," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 88(4), pages 1541-1581.
    21. Alexander De Juan & Tim Wegenast, 2020. "Temperatures, food riots, and adaptation: A long-term historical analysis of England," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(2), pages 265-280, March.
    22. Kodila-Tedika, Oasis & Khalifa, Sherif, 2020. "The Effect of U.S. Officials’ Visits on Conflict," MPRA Paper 98909, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Environment; Development; Political economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N43 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N53 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts

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