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Winter is Coming: The Long-Run Effects of Climate Change on Conflict, 1400-1900

Author

Listed:
  • Iyigun, Murat

    (University of Colorado, Boulder)

  • Nunn, Nathan

    (Harvard University)

  • Qian, Nancy

    (Northwestern University)

Abstract

This paper investigates the long-run effects of climate change on conflict by examining cooling from 1400-1900 CE, a period that includes most of the Little Ice Age. We construct a geo-referenced and digitized database of conflicts in Europe, North Africa, and the Near East from 1400-1900, which we merge with historical temperature data. We first show that during this time, cooling is associated with increased conflict. Then, turning to the dynamics of cooling, we allow the effects of cooling over a fifty-year period to depend on the extent of cooling during the preceding fifty-year period. We find that the effect of cooling on conflict is significantly larger if the same location experienced cooling during the preceding period. We interpret this as evidence that the adverse effect of climate change intensifies with its duration.

Suggested Citation

  • Iyigun, Murat & Nunn, Nathan & Qian, Nancy, 2017. "Winter is Coming: The Long-Run Effects of Climate Change on Conflict, 1400-1900," IZA Discussion Papers 10475, IZA Network @ LISER.
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp10475
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    Cited by:

    1. Murat Iyigun & Nathan Nunn & Nancy Qian, 2017. "The Long-run Effects of Agricultural Productivity on Conflict, 1400-1900," NBER Working Papers 24066, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Chengjiu Sun & Hongfei Li, 2024. "The Celestial Empire: solar eclipses, political legitimacy, and economic performance in historical China," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 18(2), pages 453-491, May.
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    4. Xinde Ji & Kelly M. Cobourn, 2021. "Weather Fluctuations, Expectation Formation, and Short-Run Behavioral Responses to Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 78(1), pages 77-119, January.
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    10. Paola Giuliano & Nathan Nunn, 2021. "Understanding Cultural Persistence and Change [Cultural Assimilation During the Age of Mass Migration]," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 88(4), pages 1541-1581.
    11. Oeindrila Dube & S.P. Harish, 2017. "Queens," NBER Working Papers 23337, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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