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Fertile Ground for Conflict

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolas Berman
  • Mathieu Couttenier
  • Raphael Soubeyran

Abstract

We investigate how variations in soil fertility affect civil conflicts. We first present a model with heterogeneous land in which variations in input prices (fertilizers) affect appropriable rents and the opportunity costs of fighting. The theory predicts that spikes in input prices increase the likelihood of conflicts through their effect on income and inequality, and that this effect is magnified when soil fertility is naturally more heterogenous. We test these predictions using data on conflict events covering all Sub-Saharan African countries at a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 degree latitude and longitude over the 1997-2013 period. We combine information on soil characteristics and worldwide variations in fertilizer prices to identify local exogenous changes in input costs. As predicted, variations in soil productivity triggered by variations in fertilizer prices are positively associated with conflicts, especially in cells where land endowments are more heterogeneous. In addition, we find that the distribution of land fertility both within and across ethnic groups affects violence, and that the effect of between-group heterogeneity in soil quality is magnified in densely populated areas. Overall, our findings imply that inequality in access to fertile areas - an issue largely neglected in the literature dealing with the roots of Sub-Saharan African civil wars - constitutes a serious threat to peace at the local-level.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Berman & Mathieu Couttenier & Raphael Soubeyran, 2017. "Fertile Ground for Conflict," Working Papers 17-06, LAMETA, Universtiy of Montpellier.
  • Handle: RePEc:lam:wpaper:17-06
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    File URL: http://www.lameta.univ-montp1.fr/Documents/DR2017-06.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Alex Dickson & Ian A MacKenzie & Petros G Sekeris, 2018. "The role of markets and preferences on resource conflicts," Working Papers 1819, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts

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