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External Shocks, Internal Shots: The Geography of Civil Conflicts

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolas Berman

    (The Graduate Institute Geneva)

  • Mathieu Couttenier

    (University of Lausanne)

Abstract

We use georeferenced information on the location of violent events in sub-Saharan African countries and provide evidence that external income shocks are important determinants of the intensity and geography of civil conflicts. More precisely, we find that (a) the incidence, intensity, and onset of conflicts are generally negatively and significantly correlated with income variations at the local level; (b) this relationship is significantly weaker for the most remote locations; and (c) at the country level, these shocks have an insignificant impact on the overall probability of conflict outbreak but do affect the probability that conflicts start in the most opened regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Berman & Mathieu Couttenier, 2015. "External Shocks, Internal Shots: The Geography of Civil Conflicts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(4), pages 758-776, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:97:y:2015:i:4:p:758-776
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    conflict; income shocks; international trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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