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Epidemic Trade

Author

Listed:
  • Lars Boerner

    (Freie Universität Berlin)

  • Battista Severgnini

    (Copenhagen Business School)

Abstract

This paper studies the spread of the Black Death as a proxy for the intensity of medieval trade ows between 1346 and 1351. The Black Death struck most areas of Europe and the wider Mediterranean. Based on a modi ed version of the gravity model, we estimate the speed (in kilometers per day) of transmission of the disease between the transmitting and the receiving cities. We find that the speed depends on distance, political borders, and on the political impor- tance of a city. Furthermore, variables related to the means of transportation like rivers and the sea, religious seasons such as Advent, and geographical position are of substantial significance. These results are the rst to enable us to identify and quantify key variables of medieval trade ows based on an empirical trade model. These results shed new light on many qualitative debates on the importance and causes of medieval trade.Length: 40 pages

Suggested Citation

  • Lars Boerner & Battista Severgnini, 2012. "Epidemic Trade," Working Papers 0024, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
  • Handle: RePEc:hes:wpaper:0024
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Contagio? Quale Contagio?
      by Paolo Manasse in Back-Of-The-Envelope Economics on 2012-05-18 01:37:00
    2. Contagion? What Contagion?
      by Paolo Manasse in Back-Of-The-Envelope Economics on 2012-05-19 01:12:00

    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Black Death

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    Cited by:

    1. Bertocchi, Graziella & Bozzano, Monica, 2016. "Women, medieval commerce, and the education gender gap," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 496-521.
    2. Wahl, Fabian, 2016. "Does medieval trade still matter? Historical trade centers, agglomeration and contemporary economic development," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 50-60.
    3. Börner, Lars & Severgnini, Battista, 2011. "Epidemic trade," Discussion Papers 2011/12, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    4. Maurizion Iacopetta, 2016. "Commercial revolutions, search, and development," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2016-08, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    5. Theresa Finley & Raphaël Franck & Noel D. Johnson, 2021. "The Effects of Land Redistribution: Evidence from the French Revolution," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(2), pages 233-267.
    6. Matthias Flückiger & Erik Hornung & Mario Larch & Markus Ludwig & Allard Mees, 2022. "Roman Transport Network Connectivity and Economic Integration," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 89(2), pages 774-810.
    7. Barua, Suborna, 2020. "COVID-19 pandemic and world trade: Some analytical notes," MPRA Paper 99761, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Antràs, Pol & Redding, Stephen J. & Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban, 2020. "Globalization and Pandemics," CEPR Discussion Papers 15297, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Fabian Siuda & Uwe Sunde, 2021. "Disease and demographic development: the legacy of the plague," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 1-30, March.
    10. Remi Jedwab & Noel D. Johnson & Mark Koyama, 2022. "The Economic Impact of the Black Death," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 132-178, March.
    11. Remi Jedwab & Noel D. Johnson & Mark Koyama, 2019. "Negative shocks and mass persecutions: evidence from the Black Death," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 345-395, December.
    12. Maurizio Iacopetta, 2016. "Commercial Revolutions, Search, and Development," 2016 Meeting Papers 1394, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Beverelli, Cosimo & Ticku, Rohit, 2020. "Illicit trade and infectious diseases," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2020-13, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    14. Beard, Rodney, 2015. "Using a structural gravity model to assess the risk of livestock disease incursions in the UK," 150th Seminar, October 22-23, 2015, Edinburgh, Scotland 212668, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Remi Jedwab & Noel D. Johnson & Mark Koyama, 2019. "Pandemics, Places, and Populations: Evidence from the Black Death," Working Papers 2019-3, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    16. Karolina Drela & Agnieszka Malkowska & Anna Bera & Anna Tokarz-Kocik, 2021. "Instruments for Managing the EU Labour Market in the Face of the COVID-19 Crisis," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 984-998.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade; Middle Ages; Black Death; Gravity model; Poisson regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • N13 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: Pre-1913

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