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Epidemic Trade

Author

Listed:
  • Lars Boerner

    () (Freie Universität Berlin)

  • Battista Severgnini

    () (Copenhagen Business School)

Abstract

This paper studies the spread of the Black Death as a proxy for the intensity of medieval trade ows between 1346 and 1351. The Black Death struck most areas of Europe and the wider Mediterranean. Based on a modi ed version of the gravity model, we estimate the speed (in kilometers per day) of transmission of the disease between the transmitting and the receiving cities. We find that the speed depends on distance, political borders, and on the political impor- tance of a city. Furthermore, variables related to the means of transportation like rivers and the sea, religious seasons such as Advent, and geographical position are of substantial significance. These results are the rst to enable us to identify and quantify key variables of medieval trade ows based on an empirical trade model. These results shed new light on many qualitative debates on the importance and causes of medieval trade.Length: 40 pages

Suggested Citation

  • Lars Boerner & Battista Severgnini, 2012. "Epidemic Trade," Working Papers 0024, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
  • Handle: RePEc:hes:wpaper:0024
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wahl, Fabian, 2016. "Does medieval trade still matter? Historical trade centers, agglomeration and contemporary economic development," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 50-60.
    2. Bertocchi, Graziella & Bozzano, Monica, 2016. "Women, medieval commerce, and the education gender gap," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 496-521.
    3. Maurizio Iacopetta, 2016. "Commercial Revolutions, Search, and Development," 2016 Meeting Papers 1394, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Börner, Lars & Severgnini, Battista, 2011. "Epidemic trade," Discussion Papers 2011/12, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    5. Maurizion Iacopetta, 2016. "Commercial revolutions, search, and development," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2016-08, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    6. Remi Jedwab & Mark Koyama & Noel Johnson, "undated". "Negative Shocks and Mass Persecutions: Evidence from the Black Death," Working Papers 2017-4, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    7. Beard, Rodney, 2015. "Using a structural gravity model to assess the risk of livestock disease incursions in the UK," 150th Seminar, October 22-23, 2015, Edinburgh, Scotland 212668, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade; Middle Ages; Black Death; Gravity model; Poisson regression;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • N13 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: Pre-1913

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