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Epidemic trade

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  • Börner, Lars
  • Severgnini, Battista

Abstract

This paper studies the spread of the Black Death as a proxy for the ow of medieval trade between 1346 and 1351. The Black Death struck most areas of Europe and the wider Mediterranean. Based on a modified version of the gravity model, we estimate the speed (in kilometers per day) of transmission of the disease between the transmitting and the receiving cities. We find that the speed depends on distance, political borders, and on the political importance of a city. Furthermore, variables related to the means of transportation like rivers and the sea, religious seasons such as Lent and Advent, and geographical position are of substantial significance. These results are the first to enable us to identify and quantify key variables of medieval trade ows based on an empirical trade model. These results shed new light on many qualitative debates on the importance and causes of medieval trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Börner, Lars & Severgnini, Battista, 2011. "Epidemic trade," Discussion Papers 2011/12, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:201112
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    5. Maurizion Iacopetta, 2016. "Commercial revolutions, search, and development," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2016-08, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
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    8. Remi Jedwab & Noel D. Johnson & Mark Koyama, 2019. "Negative shocks and mass persecutions: evidence from the Black Death," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 345-395, December.
    9. Beard, Rodney, 2015. "Using a structural gravity model to assess the risk of livestock disease incursions in the UK," 150th Seminar, October 22-23, 2015, Edinburgh, Scotland 212668, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Jedwab, Remi & Johnson, Noel D. & Koyama, Mark, 2024. "Pandemics and cities: Evidence from the Black Death and the long-run," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    11. Wahl, Fabian, 2016. "Does medieval trade still matter? Historical trade centers, agglomeration and contemporary economic development," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 50-60.
    12. Barua, Suborna, 2020. "COVID-19 pandemic and world trade: Some analytical notes," MPRA Paper 99761, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Fabian Siuda & Uwe Sunde, 2021. "Disease and demographic development: the legacy of the plague," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 1-30, March.
    14. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/93apstuvh8ud8mhj9ai14bqrv is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Börner, Lars & Severgnini, Battista, 2011. "Epidemic trade," Discussion Papers 2011/12, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    16. Koyama, Mark & Jedwab, Remi & Johnson, Noel, 2019. "Pandemics, Places, and Populations: Evidence from the Black Death," CEPR Discussion Papers 13523, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Bertocchi, Graziella & Bozzano, Monica, 2016. "Women, medieval commerce, and the education gender gap," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 496-521.
    18. Beverelli, Cosimo & Ticku, Rohit, 2020. "Illicit trade and infectious diseases," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2020-13, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    19. Maurizio Iacopetta, 2016. "Commercial Revolutions, Search, and Development," 2016 Meeting Papers 1394, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • N13 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: Pre-1913

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