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Epidemic trade

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  • Börner, Lars
  • Severgnini, Battista

Abstract

This paper studies the spread of the Black Death as a proxy for the ow of medieval trade between 1346 and 1351. The Black Death struck most areas of Europe and the wider Mediterranean. Based on a modified version of the gravity model, we estimate the speed (in kilometers per day) of transmission of the disease between the transmitting and the receiving cities. We find that the speed depends on distance, political borders, and on the political importance of a city. Furthermore, variables related to the means of transportation like rivers and the sea, religious seasons such as Lent and Advent, and geographical position are of substantial significance. These results are the first to enable us to identify and quantify key variables of medieval trade ows based on an empirical trade model. These results shed new light on many qualitative debates on the importance and causes of medieval trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Börner, Lars & Severgnini, Battista, 2011. "Epidemic trade," Discussion Papers 2011/12, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:201112
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    Blog mentions

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    Cited by:

    1. Wahl, Fabian, 2016. "Does medieval trade still matter? Historical trade centers, agglomeration and contemporary economic development," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 50-60.
    2. Theresa Finley & Raphaël Franck & Noel D. Johnson, 2021. "The Effects of Land Redistribution: Evidence from the French Revolution," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(2), pages 233-267.
    3. Barua, Suborna, 2020. "COVID-19 pandemic and world trade: Some analytical notes," MPRA Paper 99761, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Pol Antras & Stephen J Redding & Esteban Rossi Hansberg, 2020. "Globalization and Pandemics," Working Papers 267, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    5. Fabian Siuda & Uwe Sunde, 2021. "Disease and demographic development: the legacy of the plague," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 1-30, March.
    6. Remi Jedwab & Noel D. Johnson & Mark Koyama, 2022. "The Economic Impact of the Black Death," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 132-178, March.
    7. Bertocchi, Graziella & Bozzano, Monica, 2016. "Women, medieval commerce, and the education gender gap," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 496-521.
    8. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/93apstuvh8ud8mhj9ai14bqrv is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Pol Antràs & Stephen J. Redding & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2020. "Globalization and Pandemics," Working Papers 2020-14, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    10. Börner, Lars & Severgnini, Battista, 2011. "Epidemic trade," Discussion Papers 2011/12, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    11. Pol Antràs & Stephen J. Redding & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2023. "Globalization and Pandemics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(4), pages 939-981, April.
    12. Koyama, Mark & Jedwab, Remi & Johnson, Noel, 2019. "Pandemics, Places, and Populations: Evidence from the Black Death," CEPR Discussion Papers 13523, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Matthias Flückiger & Erik Hornung & Mario Larch & Markus Ludwig & Allard Mees, 2022. "Roman Transport Network Connectivity and Economic Integration," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(2), pages 774-810.
    14. Karolina Drela & Agnieszka Malkowska & Anna Bera & Anna Tokarz-Kocik, 2021. "Instruments for Managing the EU Labour Market in the Face of the COVID-19 Crisis," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 984-998.
    15. Maurizion Iacopetta, 2016. "Commercial revolutions, search, and development," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2016-08, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    16. Remi Jedwab & Noel D. Johnson & Mark Koyama, 2019. "Negative shocks and mass persecutions: evidence from the Black Death," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 345-395, December.
    17. Beverelli, Cosimo & Ticku, Rohit, 2020. "Illicit trade and infectious diseases," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2020-13, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    18. Beard, Rodney, 2015. "Using a structural gravity model to assess the risk of livestock disease incursions in the UK," 150th Seminar, October 22-23, 2015, Edinburgh, Scotland 212668, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    19. Maurizio Iacopetta, 2016. "Commercial Revolutions, Search, and Development," 2016 Meeting Papers 1394, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade; Middle Ages; Black Death; Gravity model; Poisson regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • N13 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: Pre-1913

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