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The Political Boundaries of Ethnic Divisions

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  • Samuel Bazzi
  • Matthew Gudgeon

Abstract

We use a policy experiment in Indonesia to show how local political boundaries affect ethnic tension. Redrawing district borders along group lines reduces conflict. However, the gains in stability are undone or even reversed when new boundaries increase ethnic polarization. Greater polarization leads to more violence around majoritarian elections but has little effect around lower-stakes, proportional representation elections. These results point to distinct incentives for violence in winner-take-all settings with contestable public resources. Overall, our findings illustrate the promise and pitfalls of redrawing borders in diverse countries where it is infeasible for each group to have its own administrative unit.

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  • Samuel Bazzi & Matthew Gudgeon, 2021. "The Political Boundaries of Ethnic Divisions," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 235-266, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejapp:v:13:y:2021:i:1:p:235-66
    DOI: 10.1257/app.20190309
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    Cited by:

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    2. Depetris-Chauvin, Emilio & Özak, Ömer, 2019. "Borderline Disorder: (De facto) Historical Ethnic Borders and Contemporary Conflict in Africa," MPRA Paper 110197, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2021.
    3. Allan Hsiao, 2022. "Democratization and Infrastructure Investment: Evidence from Healthcare in Indonesia," Working Papers 2022-31, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    4. Ricardo Dahis & Christiane Szerman, 2023. "Decentralizing Development: Evidence from Government Splits," Monash Economics Working Papers 2023-18, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    5. Rohner, Dominic & Esteban, Joan & Flamand, Sabine & Morelli, Massimo, 2018. "A Dynamic Theory of Secession," CEPR Discussion Papers 12398, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Emilio Depetris-Chauvin & Ömer Özak, 2023. "(De facto) Historical Ethnic Borders and Contemporary Conflict in Africa," Departmental Working Papers 2303, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
    7. Richard Bluhm & Roland Hodler & Paul Schaudt, 2021. "Ethnofederalism and Ethnic Voting," CESifo Working Paper Series 9314, CESifo.
    8. Samuel Bazzi & Robert A. Blair & Christopher Blattman & Oeindrila Dube & Matthew Gudgeon & Richard Peck, 2022. "The Promise and Pitfalls of Conflict Prediction: Evidence from Colombia and Indonesia," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 764-779, October.
    9. Pelzl, Paul & Poelhekke, Steven, 2021. "Good mine, bad mine: Natural resource heterogeneity and Dutch disease in Indonesia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    10. Cassidy, Traviss, 2017. "How Forward-Looking Are Local Governments? Evidence from Indonesia," MPRA Paper 97776, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jun 2019.
    11. Baskaran, Thushyanthan & Blesse, Sebastian, 2019. "Subnational border reforms and economic development in Africa," ZEW Discussion Papers 18-027, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, revised 2019.
    12. Cassidy, Traviss & Velayudhan, Tejaswi, 2022. "Government Fragmentation and Economic Growth," MPRA Paper 112045, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Opalo, Ken Ochieng' & Habyarimana, James & Schipper, Youdi, 2021. "The Contingent Electoral Impacts of Programmatic Policies: Evidence From Education Reforms in Tanzania," OSF Preprints utpqn, Center for Open Science.
    14. Cornelius Christian & Lukas Hensel & Christopher Roth, 2019. "Income Shocks and Suicides: Causal Evidence From Indonesia," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(5), pages 905-920, December.
    15. Rezki, Jahen Fachrul, 2018. "Political Competition and Local Government Performance: Evidence from Indonesia," SocArXiv nekps, Center for Open Science.
    16. Paul Pelzl & Steven Poelhekke, 2023. "Democratization, leader education and growth: firm-level evidence from Indonesia," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 571-600, December.
    17. Jahen F. Rezki, 2022. "Political competition and economic performance: evidence from Indonesia," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 83-114, June.
    18. Amodio, Francesco & Chiovelli, Giorgio & Munson, Dylan, 2022. "Pre-colonial ethnic institutions and party politics in Africa," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 969-980.
    19. Edwards, Ryan B. & Naylor, Rosamond L. & Higgins, Matthew M. & Falcon, Walter P., 2020. "Causes of Indonesia’s forest fires," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    20. Bluhm, Richard & Hodler, Roland & Schaudt, Paul, 2021. "Local majorities: How administrative divisions shape comparative development," Economics Working Paper Series 2110, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    21. Ricardo Dahis & Christiane Szerman, 2024. "Decentralizing Development: Evidence from Government Splits," CESifo Working Paper Series 10927, CESifo.
    22. Dahis, Ricardo & Szerman, Christiane, 2024. "Decentralizing Development: Evidence from Government Splits," IZA Discussion Papers 16761, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    23. Bertinelli,Luisito & Comertpay,Rana & Maystadt,Jean-François, 2022. "Refugees, Diversity and Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10052, The World Bank.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure

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