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The Refugee's Dilemma: Evidence from Jewish Migration out of Nazi Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Johannes Buggle

    (University of Vienna [Vienna])

  • Thierry Mayer

    (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR)

  • Seyhun Orcan Sakalli

    (King‘s College London)

  • Mathias Thoenig

    (UNIL - Université de Lausanne = University of Lausanne, University of Oxford, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR)

Abstract

We estimate the push and pull factors involved in the outmigration of Jews facing persecution in Nazi Germany from 1933 to 1941. Our empirical investigation makes use of a unique individual-level dataset that records the migration history of the Jewish community in Germany over the period. Our analysis highlights new channels, specific to violent contexts, through which social networks affect the decision to flee. We estimate a structural model of migration where individuals base their own migration decision on the observation of persecution and migration among their peers. Identification rests on exogenous variations in local push and pull factors across peers who live in different cities of residence. Then, we perform various experiments of counterfactual history to quantify how migration restrictions in destination countries affected the fate of Jews. For example, removing work restrictions for refugees in the recipient countries after the Nuremberg Laws (of 1935) would have led to an increase in Jewish migration out of Germany in the range of 12 to 20%, and a reduction in mortality due to prevented deportations in the range of 6 to 10%.

Suggested Citation

  • Johannes Buggle & Thierry Mayer & Seyhun Orcan Sakalli & Mathias Thoenig, 2023. "The Refugee's Dilemma: Evidence from Jewish Migration out of Nazi Germany," Post-Print hal-03861721, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03861721
    DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjad001
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03861721v2
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    2. Becker, Sascha O. & Mukand, Sharun & Yotzov, Ivan, 2022. "Persecution, pogroms and genocide: A conceptual framework and new evidence," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    3. Gianluca Orefice & Hillel Rapoport & Gianluca Santoni, 2021. "How Do Immigrants Promote Exports?," Working Papers DT/2021/04, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    4. Gianluca Orefice & Hillel Rapoport & Gianluca Santoni, 2021. "How Do Immigrants Promote Exports? Networks, Knowledge, Diversity," CESifo Working Paper Series 9288, CESifo.
    5. Sascha O. Becker, 2022. "Forced displacement in history: Some recent research," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(1), pages 2-25, March.
    6. Michael A Clemens, 2022. "The economic and fiscal effects on the United States from reduced numbers of refugees and asylum seekers [Refugees without Assistance: English-language Attainment and Economic Outcomes in the Early," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 38(3), pages 449-486.
    7. Michelle Hansch & Jan Nimczik & Alexandra Spitz-Oener, 2024. "Workplace Connections and Labor Migration: The Role of Information in Shaping Expectations," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 490, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    refugees; migration policy; counterfactual history; nazi Germany;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • N40 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions

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