IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_11952.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

From Aspiration to Action? The Impact of Germany's 2015 Dublin III Suspension on Migration Intentions in Arab Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Andreas B. Vortisch
  • Evangelos Paschalidis
  • Michel Beine
  • Michel Bierlaire

Abstract

On 5 September 2015, the German government suspended the EU's Dublin III regulations, allowing all asylum seekers to apply for asylum in Germany. This policy change motivated more than one million people, especially Syrians, Afghans, and Iraqis, to enter the country. This study examines the impact of this policy change on migration aspirations and actions in 11 Arab countries, assessing whether it increased migration pressure toward Germany. We find that while the policy raised migration aspirations, it did not significantly affect concrete migration plans and therefore immigration pressures. Instead, age and personal networks abroad play more decisive roles in shaping such plans. Additionally, territorial control by IS in certain regions served as a distinct push factor. We also analyze migration preparations and find that age and networks abroad remain key determinants. Our results also suggest that the policy may have altered the composition of those planning to migrate.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas B. Vortisch & Evangelos Paschalidis & Michel Beine & Michel Bierlaire, 2025. "From Aspiration to Action? The Impact of Germany's 2015 Dublin III Suspension on Migration Intentions in Arab Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 11952, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11952
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp11952.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11952. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.