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The Refugee’s Dilemma:Evidence from Jewish Migration out of Nazi Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Johannes Buggle
  • Mathias Thoenig
  • Thierry Mayer
  • Seyhun Orcan Sakalli

Abstract

In this paper we estimate the push and pull factors involved in the outmigration of Jews facing persecution in Nazi Germany from 1933 to 1941 when migration was banned. Our empirical investigation makes use of a unique individual-level dataset that records the migration history of almost the entire universe of Jews living in Germany over the period. Our analysis highlights new channels, specific to violent contexts, through which social networks affect the decision to flee. We first estimate a structural model of migration where individuals base their own migration decision on the observation of persecution and migration among their peers. Identification rests on exogenous variations in push and pull factors across peers who live in different cities of residence. Then we perform various counterfactual policy experiments in order to quantify how migration restrictions in destination countries affected the fate of Jews. For example, removing work restrictions for refugees after the Nuremberg Laws (in 1935) would have led to 27% increase in Jewish migration out of Germany.

Suggested Citation

  • Johannes Buggle & Mathias Thoenig & Thierry Mayer & Seyhun Orcan Sakalli, 2020. "The Refugee’s Dilemma:Evidence from Jewish Migration out of Nazi Germany," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 20.01, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    • Handle: RePEc:lau:crdeep:20.01
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    Cited by:

    1. Sascha O. Becker, 2022. "Forced displacement in history: Some recent research," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(1), pages 2-25, March.
    2. Michel Beine & Michel Bierlaire & Frédéric Docquier, 2021. "New York, Abu Dhabi, London or Stay at Home? Using a Cross-Nested Logit Model to Identify Complex Substitution Patterns in Migration," LISER Working Paper Series 2021-01, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    3. Becker, Sascha O. & Mukand, Sharun & Yotzov, Ivan, 2022. "Persecution, pogroms and genocide: A conceptual framework and new evidence," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    4. Michelle Hansch & Jan Nimczik & Alexandra Spitz-Oener, 2024. "Workplace Connections and Labor Migration: The Role of Information in Shaping Expectations," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 490, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    5. Francesco Barilari & Davide Bellucci & Pierluigi Conzo & Roberto Zotti, 2025. "The political effects of (mis)perceived immigration," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(4), pages 585-605.
    6. Natalia Fabra & Catarina Pintassilgo & Mateus Souza, 2024. "Observed patterns of free-floating car-sharing use," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 259-297, September.
    7. Orefice, Gianluca & Rapoport, Hillel & Santoni, Gianluca, 2025. "How Do Immigrants Promote Exports?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    8. Michael A Clemens, 2022. "The economic and fiscal effects on the United States from reduced numbers of refugees and asylum seekers," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 38(3), pages 449-486.
    9. Thomas Baudin & Robert Stelter, 2023. "Kinder, Küche und Kirche, Family policies and fertility in the Third Reich," Working Papers 2023-iFlame-04, IESEG School of Management.
    10. Andreas B. Vortisch & Evangelos Paschalidis & Michel Beine & Michel Bierlaire, 2025. "From Aspiration to Action? The Impact of Germany's 2015 Dublin III Suspension on Migration Intentions in Arab Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 11952, CESifo.
    11. repec:ces:ceswps:_11195 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Adrjan, Pawel & Gromadzki, Jan, 2025. "Exclusionary Government Rhetoric and Migration Intentions," IZA Discussion Papers 18217, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Escamilla-Guerrero, David & Kosack, Edward & Ward, Zachary, 2025. "The impact of violence on the dynamics of migration: Evidence from the Mexican Revolution," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    14. Gianluca Orefice & Hillel Rapoport & Gianluca Santoni, 2021. "How Do Immigrants Promote Exports? Networks, Knowledge, Diversity," CESifo Working Paper Series 9288, CESifo.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • N40 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions

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