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Forced migration and food crises

Author

Listed:
  • Federico Carril-Caccia

    (University of Granada)

  • Jordi Paniagua

    (University of Valencia; Kellogg Institute, University of Notre Dame\nAuthor-Name:Â Marta Suarez-Varela
    Bank of Spain
    Trier University)

Abstract

This paper analyses the effects of food crises on forced international migration (FIM) flows using a structural gravity model, thereby testing the influence of liquidity constraints in the context of heterogeneous migration costs and economic resources of potential migrants. We construct a dataset that measures food crises' severity, intensity, and causes. Our results suggest that food crises increase forced international migration. While mild food crises skew international migrants to developed and nonneighbouring countries, more severe events divert them to closer destinations. The results indicate that food crises tighten liquidity constraints on migration, and this worsens as they intensify. Under more severe food crises, migrants may lack the necessary resources to afford the higher costs of migrating internationally, particularly to a developed nation, thus choosing a closer destination or migrating internally.

Suggested Citation

  • Federico Carril-Caccia & Jordi Paniagua, 2025. "Forced migration and food crises," Working Papers 202530, Center for Global Policy Analysis, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    • Handle: RePEc:drx:wpaper:202530
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    File URL: https://www.lebow.drexel.edu/sites/default/files/2025-06/202530-cpga-forced-migration.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

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