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Structural gravity with dummies only: Constrained ANOVA-type estimation of gravity models

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  • Egger, Peter H.
  • Nigai, Sergey

Abstract

The measurement of trade costs and their effects on outcome is at the heart of a large quantitative literature in international economics. The majority of the recent significant contributions on the matter assumes that trade is log-linear in exporter-specific factors, importer-specific factors, and log trade costs that are additively composed of a parameterized part and a residual part. We demonstrate that, under standard assumptions in the literature, the magnitude of unobservable, residual trade costs is large, and that their ignorance leads to a bias of the importance of observable trade-cost measures as well as of country-specific variables that are either solved implicitly through structural estimation or estimated explicitly as fixed effects. The reason is that, due to general-equilibrium linkages, some country-specific variables are endogenous to residual trade costs, regardless of whether they are captured by iteratively-solved structural terms or by country(-time) fixed effects. As a result, quantifications of effects of trade costs and comparative static results are also biased. Apart from diagnosing this problem, the paper provides remedies for it by proposing theory-consistent approaches including a two-step procedure that permits identifying partial effects of observable gravity variables on total trade costs and trade flows which do not suffer from the unobserved-trade-cost bias.

Suggested Citation

  • Egger, Peter H. & Nigai, Sergey, 2015. "Structural gravity with dummies only: Constrained ANOVA-type estimation of gravity models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 86-99.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:97:y:2015:i:1:p:86-99
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2015.05.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Scott French, 2017. "Comparative Advantage and Biased Gravity," Discussion Papers 2017-03, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    2. Oliver Reiter & Robert Stehrer, 2018. "Trade Policies and Integration of the Western Balkans," wiiw Working Papers 148, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gravity models; Structural general-equilibrium models; Fixed effects estimation;

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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