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The currency union effect on trade is decreasing over time

  • De Sousa, Jose

Estimating a theoretical gravity model over a sixty-year period, from 1948 to 2009, I found an unexpected trend: the currency union impact on trade is decreasing over time. This result suggests that with trade and financial globalization currency unions become less and less important to promote trade.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/35448/1/MPRA_paper_35448.pdf
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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/40327/1/MPRA_paper_40327.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 35448.

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Date of creation: Nov 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35448
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  1. Joao Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2009. "Further simulation evidence on the performance of the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 25506, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  2. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry & Ries, John, 2010. "The erosion of colonial trade linkages after independence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 1-14, May.
  3. Andrew K. Rose & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 386-390, May.
  4. Scott L. Baier & Jeffrey H. Bergstrand, 2005. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members’ international trade?," Working Paper 2005-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  5. Reuven Glick & Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Does a currency union affect trade? the time series evidence," Working Paper Series 2001-13, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," NBER Working Papers 10480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
  8. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: the effect is large," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 449-461, October.
  10. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2010. "Currency Unions in Prospect and Retrospect," CEP Discussion Papers dp0986, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  11. Yotov, Yoto, 2012. "A Simple Solution to the Distance Puzzle in International Trade," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2012-6, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
  12. Anne-Célia Disdier & Keith Head, 2004. "The Puzzling Persistence of the Distance Effect on Bilateral Trade," Development Working Papers 186, Centro Studi Luca d\'Agliano, University of Milano.
  13. Yeyati, Eduardo Levy, 2003. "On the impact of a common currency on bilateral trade," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 125-129, April.
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