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Gravity and Heterogeneous Trade Cost Elasticities

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  • Novy, Dennis
  • Chen, Natalie

Abstract

How do trade costs affect international trade? This paper offers a new approach. We rely on a flexible gravity equation that predicts variable trade cost elasticities, both across and within country pairs. We apply this framework to popular trade cost variables such as currency unions, trade agreements, and WTO membership. While we estimate that these variables are associated with increased bilateral trade on average, we find substantial heterogeneity. Consistent with the predictions of our framework, trade cost effects are strong for 'thin' bilateral relationships characterised by small import shares, and weak or even zero for 'thick' relationships.

Suggested Citation

  • Novy, Dennis & Chen, Natalie, 2021. "Gravity and Heterogeneous Trade Cost Elasticities," CEPR Discussion Papers 16318, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16318
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    2. Alessandro Nicita & Enxhi Tresa, 2023. "The heterogeneous effects of trade policy on trade resilience during the 2020 trade downturn," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(10), pages 3048-3056, October.
    3. Stefani Stefanova & Sophie Bandarkar & Yoto Yotov, 2025. "A Reassessment of the Impact of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development on International Trade," Working Papers 202509, Center for Global Policy Analysis, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    4. Alena DORAKH, 2022. "Trade and FDI connectivity in Europe: the European Union, Western Balkans and new EU candidate countries," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 13, pages 24-53, December.
    5. Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2024. "Estimating the effects of trade agreements: Lessons from 60 years of methods and data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(5), pages 1771-1799, May.
    6. Beniamino Quintieri & Giovanni Stamato, 2023. "Are preferential agreements beneficial to EU trade? New evidence from the EU–South Korea treaty," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(12), pages 3511-3541, December.
    7. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Clance, Matthew W. & Santos Silva, J.M.C., 2025. "The tails of gravity: Using expectiles to quantify the trade-margins effects of economic integration agreements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    8. Benjamin Jung, 2023. "The Trade Effects of the EU-South Korea Free Trade Agreement: Heterogeneity Across Time, Country Pairs, and Directions of Trade within Country Pairs," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 617-656, July.
    9. Campbell, Douglas L. & Chentsov, Aleksandr, 2023. "Breaking badly: The currency union effect on trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    10. Jung, Benjamin, 2022. "The Trade Effects of the EU-South Korea Free Trade Agreement: Heterogeneity across Time, Country Pairs, and Directions of Trade within Country Pairs," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264125, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Erik Merkus, 2024. "Gravity Models in International Trade: A Specification Curve Analysis," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 1-10, December.
    12. Carmen Díaz-Mora & Silviano Esteve-Pérez & Salvador Gil-Pareja & Fernando Ríos-Avila, 2024. "The EMU effect on trade: A re-assessment accounting for staggered treatment adoption," Working Papers 2407, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    13. Alessandro Nicita & Enxhi Tresa, 2022. "Trade policy and trade resilience during the 2020 trade downturn," UNCTAD Working Papers #1, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    14. Andreas M. Fischer & Pinar Yesin, 2023. "The kindness of strangers: Brexit and bilateral financial linkages," Working Papers 2023-02, Swiss National Bank.
    15. Peter Egger & Reto Foellmi & Ulrich Schetter & David Torun, 2023. "Gravity with History: On Incumbency Effects in International Trade," Growth Lab Working Papers 219, Harvard's Growth Lab.
    16. Besedeš, Tibor & Chu, Jing & Murshid, Antu Panini, 2024. "Fly the unfriendly skies: The role of transport costs in gravity models of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    17. Heid, Benedikt & Stähler, Frank, 2024. "Structural gravity and the gains from trade under imperfect competition: Quantifying the effects of the European Single Market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    18. Dainauskas, Justas, 2024. "The network origins of trade comovement," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    19. Hiau Looi Kee & Alessandro Nicita, 2024. "Quantifying economic impacts of trade agreements with heterogeneous trade elasticities," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 1270-1299, August.
    20. Mugnier, Martin & Wang, Ao, 2022. "Identification and (Fast) Estimation of Large Nonlinear Panel Models with Two-Way Fixed Effects," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1422, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    21. Nuno Carlos Leitão, 2023. "The Impact of Geopolitical Risk on Portuguese Exports," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-17, November.
    22. Hoyos, Mateo & Stellian, Rémi, 2025. "Dynamic trade elasticities and comparative advantages: Evidence from a PTA," SocArXiv 6fya2_v1, Center for Open Science.
    23. Kee,Hiau Looi & Nicita,Alessandro, 2023. "Quantifying Economic Impacts of Trade Agreements with Heterogeneous Trade Elasticities," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10634, The World Bank.
    24. Hoyos, Mateo & Stellian, Rémi, 2025. "Dynamic trade elasticities and comparative advantages: Evidence from a PTA," OSF Preprints tr6e3_v1, Center for Open Science.

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    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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