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Estimating the Effects of Trade Agreements: Lessons From 60 Years of Methods and Data

Author

Listed:
  • Mario Larch

    (University of Bayreuth)

  • Yoto Yotov

    (School of Economics Drexel University)

Abstract

Starting with Tinbergen (1962), quantifying the effects of regional trade agreements (RTAs) on international trade flows has always been among the most popular topics in the trade literature. Perhaps not surprisingly, to estimate the effects of RTAs, most researchers and policy analysts have relied on the workhorse model of trade—the gravity equation. Over the past 60 years, there have been many important developments in the RTA literature, both in terms of better methods to quantify their effects, and also in terms of more and higher quality data. The objective of this paper is to trace the evolution of the methods and data developments in the RTA literature, from Tinbergen’s very first exploration until today, and to critically evaluate their significance for our ability to measure the impact of RTAs (and other policies) on international trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Larch & Yoto Yotov, 2023. "Estimating the Effects of Trade Agreements: Lessons From 60 Years of Methods and Data," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2023-4, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:drxlwp:2023_004
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    Cited by:

    1. Carril-Caccia, Federico, 2025. "The impact of economic sanctions on bilateral mergers and acquisitions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    2. Vicente Pinilla & Agustina Rayes, 2024. "Trade Treaties and the Boost of Argentine Exports, 1880-1929," Documentos de Trabajo (DT-AEHE) 2406, Asociación Española de Historia Económica.
    3. Chen, Rui & Adu, Derick T. & Li, Wenying & Wilson, Norbert L.W., 2024. "Virtual water trade: Does bilateral tariff matter?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    4. Gonciarz, Tomasz & Verbeet, Thomas, 2025. "Significance of Most-Favoured-Nation terms in global trade: A comprehensive analysis," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2025-02, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    5. Wassie, Mengistu Alamneh & Kornher, Lukas & Zaki, Chahir, 2024. "Revisiting the Impact of Trade Facilitation Measures in Africa: Structural Gravity Estimation and Ad Valorem Tariff Equivalents," IAAE 2024 Conference, August 2-7, 2024, New Delhi, India 344296, International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE).
    6. Harald Oberhofer & Zhenyi Wang, 2025. "Everything You Always Wanted to Know About EU Membership Trade Effects But Were Afraid to Ask," CESifo Working Paper Series 11823, CESifo.
    7. Clara Brandi & Federico Carri-Caccia, 2025. "Preventing pollution havens? Environmental Provisions in Preferential Trade Agreements and Foreign Direct Investment," Working Papers 202513, Center for Global Policy Analysis, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    8. Khanal, Ajit & Grant, Jason H. & Legrand, Nicolas, 2025. "Evaluating North American Trade Pre- and Post- USMCA Using Structural Gravity Model," 2025 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2025, Denver, CO 361045, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Ridwan Ah Sheikh & Sunil Kanwar, 2024. "Revisiting the Impact of TRIPS on IPR-intensive Export Flows: Evidence from Staggered Difference-in-Differences," Working papers 351, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    10. Grant, Jason H. & Boys, Kathryn A. & Giddens, Janice C. & Loux, William, 2025. "Enhancing nutrition availability through international trade: U.S. and global dairy exports to emerging markets," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    11. Lionel Fontagn'e & Francesca Micocci & Armando Rungi, 2024. "The heterogeneous impact of the EU-Canada agreement with causal machine learning," Papers 2407.07652, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2025.
    12. Rojas, Irvin & Schaefer, K. Aleks, 2024. "Expanding the phytosanitary exclusion zone for Mexican avocados: Market impacts and unintended consequences," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    13. Javier Flórez Mendoza & Bernhard Moshammer, 2023. "FIW-PB 60 The EU–Mercosur agreement: Expectations and concerns in light of the new geopolitical situation," FIW Policy Brief series 60, FIW.
    14. Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2024. "FIW-PB 64 Regional Trade Agreements: What Do We Know and What Do We Miss?," FIW Policy Brief series 64, FIW.
    15. Lionel Fontagne & Krasimir Shishmanov & Penka Shishmanova & Yoto Yotov, 2025. "Asymmetric Impacts of Economic Integration: The Case of the Single European Market," Working Papers 202533, Center for Global Policy Analysis, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    16. Cipollina, Maria & Dal Bianco, Silvia, 2025. "Trade sanctions and global value chains: The role of financial development and capital openness in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    17. Yoshimichi Murakami, 2025. "Do deep regional trade agreements facilitate regional production networks in Latin American and Caribbean countries?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 161(3), pages 1139-1180, August.
    18. Díaz-Mora Carmen & Esteve-Pérez Silviano & Gil-Pareja Salvador, 2024. "Exploring the Heterogeneous Impact of Trade Agreements on Trade: Depth Matters," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-13, January.
    19. Klaus Weyerstraß & Martin Ertl & Daniel Schmidtner & Adrian Wende & Hannes Zenz, 2025. "Die Einbettung des österreichischen Außenhandels in die globale Arbeitsteilung," FIW Research Reports series y:2025:m:11, FIW.
    20. Steinbach, Sandro & Tome, Mawuena & Zurita, Carlos, 2025. "Free Trade Agreements and the U.S. Agricultural Trade Deficit: Analyzing Past Impacts and Simulating Future Opportunities," 2025 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2025, Denver, CO 361038, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    21. repec:ags:cfcp15:344296 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Sang‐Wook (Stanley) Cho & Hansoo Choi, 2025. "Unlocking the impact of US free trade agreements on industries with a synthetic control approach," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 58(2), pages 716-746, May.

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    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions

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