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Estimating the effects of trade agreements: Lessons from 60 years of methods and data

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  • Mario Larch
  • Yoto V. Yotov

Abstract

Starting with Tinbergen (1962, Shaping the world economy: Suggestions for an international economic policy, The Twentieth Century Fund), quantifying the effects of regional trade agreements (RTAs) on international trade flows has always been among the most popular topics in the trade literature. Also not surprisingly, to estimate the effects of RTAs, most researchers and policy analysts have relied on the workhorse model of trade—the gravity equation. Over the past 60 years, there have been many important developments in the RTA literature, both in terms of better methods to quantify their effects, and in terms of more and higher quality data. The objective of this paper is to trace the evolution of the methods and data developments in the RTA literature, from Tinbergen's very first exploration until today, and to critically evaluate their significance for our ability to measure the impact of RTAs (and other policies) on international trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2024. "Estimating the effects of trade agreements: Lessons from 60 years of methods and data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(5), pages 1771-1799, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:47:y:2024:i:5:p:1771-1799
    DOI: 10.1111/twec.13569
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    2. Vicente Pinilla & Agustina Rayes, 2024. "Trade Treaties and the Boost of Argentine Exports, 1880-1929," Documentos de Trabajo (DT-AEHE) 2406, Asociación Española de Historia Económica.
    3. Díaz-Mora Carmen & Esteve-Pérez Silviano & Gil-Pareja Salvador, 2024. "Exploring the Heterogeneous Impact of Trade Agreements on Trade: Depth Matters," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-13, January.
    4. Wassie, Mengistu Alamneh & Kornher, Lukas & Zaki, Chahir, 2024. "Revisiting the Impact of Trade Facilitation Measures in Africa: Structural Gravity Estimation and Ad Valorem Tariff Equivalents," IAAE 2024 Conference, August 2-7, 2024, New Delhi, India 344296, International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions

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