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On the Effects of GATT/WTO Membership on Trade: They Are Positive and Large after All

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  • Mario Larch
  • José-Antonio Monteiro
  • Roberta Piermartini
  • Yoto V. Yotov

Abstract

We capitalize on the latest developments in the empirical structural gravity literature to revisit the question of whether and how much does GATT/WTO membership affect international trade. We are the first to capture the non-discriminatory nature of GATT/WTO commitments by measuring the effects of GATT/WTO membership on international trade relative to domestic sales. These unilateral effects of GATT/WTO membership are found to be large, positive, and statistically significant. We also obtain bilateral GATT/WTO estimates, which are larger than those reported in the literature. In particular, our results imply that, on average, joining GATT and/or WTO has increased trade between members by 171% and trade between member and non-member countries by about 88%. We also find that although both GATT/WTO has been effective in promoting trade between members, the WTO has been more effective in promoting trade with non-members than GATT. A battery of sensitivity experiments confirms the effectiveness of our methods and robustness of our main findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Larch & José-Antonio Monteiro & Roberta Piermartini & Yoto V. Yotov, 2019. "On the Effects of GATT/WTO Membership on Trade: They Are Positive and Large after All," CESifo Working Paper Series 7721, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7721
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    Cited by:

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    2. Brotto, André & Jakubik, Adam & Piermartini, Roberta, 2021. "WTO accession and growth: Tang and Wei Redux," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2021-1, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    3. Jung, Benjamin, 2020. "The heterogeneous effects of China's accession to the world trade organization," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 10-2020, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    4. Jacopo Timini & Francesca Viani, 2022. "A highway across the Atlantic? Trade and welfare effects of the EU-Mercosur agreement," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 169, pages 291-308.
    5. Tamara Gurevitch & Peter R. Herman & Farid Toubal & Yoto Yotov, 2020. "One Nation, One Language? Domestic Language Diversity, Trade and Welfare," Working Papers 2020-15, CEPII research center.
    6. Emanuel Ornelas & Marcos Ritel, 2020. "The not‐so‐generalised effects of the Generalized System of Preferences," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(7), pages 1809-1840, July.
    7. Peter R. Herman, 2022. "A pragmatic approach to estimating nondiscriminatory non‐tariff trade costs," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 1258-1287, September.
    8. Koopman, Robert & Hancock, John & Piermartini, Roberta & Bekkers, Eddy, 2020. "The Value of the WTO," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 829-849.
    9. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Effect of the duration of membership in the World Trade Organization on Trademark Applications," EconStor Preprints 253266, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    10. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2021. "WTO membership, the membership duration and the utilization of non-reciprocal trade preferences offered by the QUAD Countries," EconStor Preprints 247265, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    11. Enock Kojo Ayesu, 2023. "Boosting intra-African trade performance: the role of maritime transport logistics," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(8), pages 1-18, August.
    12. Campos, Rodolfo G. & Timini, Jacopo & Vidal, Elena, 2021. "Structural gravity and trade agreements: Does the measurement of domestic trade matter?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    13. Juan René Rojas Rodríguez & Xenia Matschke, 2023. "The CAFTA-DR Free Trade Agreement — Analyzing its effects in a modern gravity framework," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 27-93, February.
    14. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Effect of Aid for Trade flows on the Accession to the World Trade Organization," EconStor Preprints 261331, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    15. Anca D. Cristea & Anna Miromanova, 2022. "Firm‐level trade effects of WTO accession: Evidence from Russia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 237-281, February.
    16. Mario Larch & Jeff Luckstead & Yoto V. Yotov, 2021. "Economic Sanctions and Agricultural Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series 9410, CESifo.
    17. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Duration of the Membership in the World Trade Organization and Aid for Trade Flows," EconStor Preprints 260562, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    18. Barlow, P. & Stuckler, D., 2021. "Globalization and health policy space: Introducing the WTOhealth dataset of trade challenges to national health regulations at World Trade Organization, 1995–2016," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    19. Yoto V. Yotov, 2021. "The Variation of Gravity within Countries (or 15 Reasons Why Gravity Should Be Estimated with Domestic Trade Flows)," CESifo Working Paper Series 9057, CESifo.
    20. Liam Pippinato & Simone Blanc & Teresina Mancuso & Filippo Brun, 2020. "A Sustainable Niche Market: How Does Honey Behave?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-14, December.
    21. Turakulov, Valijon, 2020. "Trade Policy Issues of Oil-rich but Land-locked Country Case: Focusing on Kazakhstan post-WTO entry," Conference papers 333223, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GATT/WTO; international trade; domestic sales; structural gravity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions

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