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The Currency Union Effect: A PPML Re-assessment with High-Dimensional Fixed Effects

Author

Listed:
  • Larch, Mario

    () (University of Bayreuth)

  • Wanner, Joschka

    () (University of Bayreuth)

  • Yotov, Yoto

    () (School of Economics Drexel University)

  • Zylkin, Thomas

    () (National University of Singapore)

Abstract

Recent work on the effects of currency unions (CUs) on trade stresses the importance of using many countries and years in order to obtain reliable estimates. However, for large samples, computational issues limit choice of estimator, leaving an important methodological gap. To address this gap, we unveil an iterative PPML estimator, which flexibly accounts for multilateral resistance, pair-specific heterogeneity, and correlated errors across countries and time. When applied to a comprehensive sample with more than 200 countries trading over 65 years, these innovations flip the conclusions of an otherwise rigorously-specified linear model. Our estimates for both the overall CU effect and the Euro effect specifically are economically small and statistically insignificant. The effect of non-Euro CUs, however, is large and significant. Notably, linear and PPML estimates of the Euro effect increasingly diverge as the sample size grows.

Suggested Citation

  • Larch, Mario & Wanner, Joschka & Yotov, Yoto & Zylkin, Thomas, 2017. "The Currency Union Effect: A PPML Re-assessment with High-Dimensional Fixed Effects," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2017-7, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:drxlwp:2017_007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Massimiliano Bratti & Luca Benedictis & Gianluca Santoni, 2014. "On the pro-trade effects of immigrants," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 150(3), pages 557-594, August.
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    4. Mika, Alina & Zymek, Robert, 2018. "Friends without benefits? New EMU members and the “Euro Effect” on trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 75-92.
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    7. Tom Zylkin, 2016. "PPML_PANEL_SG: Stata module to estimate "structural gravity" models via Poisson PML," Statistical Software Components S458249, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 31 Jul 2018.
    8. Paulo Guimarães & Pedro Portugal, 2010. "A simple feasible procedure to fit models with high-dimensional fixed effects," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 10(4), pages 628-649, December.
    9. Kareem, Fatima O., 2014. "Modeling and Estimation of Gravity Equation in the Presence of Zero Trade: A Validation of Hypotheses Using Africa's Trade Data," 140th Seminar, December 13-15, 2013, Perugia, Italy 163341, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. María Pía Olivero & Yoto V. Yotov, 2012. "Dynamic gravity: endogenous country size and asset accumulation," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 45(1), pages 64-92, February.
    11. Sergio Correia, 2014. "REGHDFE: Stata module to perform linear or instrumental-variable regression absorbing any number of high-dimensional fixed effects," Statistical Software Components S457874, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Aug 2016.
    12. Anabela Carneiro & Paulo Guimarães & Pedro Portugal, 2012. "Real Wages and the Business Cycle: Accounting for Worker, Firm, and Job Title Heterogeneity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 133-152, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. David J. Kuenzel, 2017. "Do Trade Flows Respond to Nudges? Evidence from the WTO’s Trade Policy Review Mechanism," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2017-006, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    2. Mika, Alina & Zymek, Robert, 2018. "Friends without benefits? New EMU members and the “Euro Effect” on trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 75-92.
    3. Beverelli, Cosimo & Keck, Alexander & Larch, Mario & Yotov, Yoto, 2018. "Institutions, Trade and Development: A Quantitative Analysis," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2018-3, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    4. Thierry Mayer & Vincent Vicard & Soledad Zignago, 2018. "The Cost of Non-Europe, Revisited," Working papers 673, Banque de France.
    5. Dhingra, Swati & Freeman, Rebecca & Mavroeidi, Eleonora, 2018. "Beyond tariff reductions: what extra boost from trade agreement provisions?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 88683, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Swati Dhingra & Rebecca Freeman & Eleonora Mavroeidi, 2018. "Beyond Tariff Reductions: What Extra Boost From Trade Agreement Provisions?," CEP Discussion Papers dp1532, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    7. Salvador Gil-Pareja & Rafael Llorca-Vivero & Jordi Paniagua, 2018. "Trade law and trade fl ows," Working Papers 1804, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    8. Oliver Reiter & Robert Stehrer, 2018. "Trade Policies and Integration of the Western Balkans," wiiw Working Papers 148, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    9. Salvador Gil-Pareja & Rafael Llorca-Vivero & José Antonio Martínez-Serrano, 2018. "The happy few: cross-country evidence of the euro effect on trade," Working Papers 1803, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency Unions; PPML; High-dimensional Fixed Effects;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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