The Currency Union Effect: A PPML Re-assessment with High-Dimensional Fixed Effects
Recent work on the effects of currency unions (CUs) on trade stresses the importance of using many countries and years in order to obtain reliable estimates. However, for large samples, computational issues limit choice of estimator, leaving an important methodological gap. To address this gap, we unveil an iterative PPML estimator which flexibly accounts for multilateral resistance, pair-specific heterogeneity, and correlated errors across countries and time. When applied to a comprehensive sample with more than 200 countries trading over 65 years, these innovations flip the conclusions of an otherwise rigorously-specified linear model. Our estimates for both the overall CU effect and the Euro effect specifically are economically small and statistically insignificant. The effect of non-Euro CUs, however, is large and significant. Notably, linear and PPML estimates of the Euro effect increasingly diverge as the sample size grows.
|Date of creation:||2017|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich|
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
Fax: +49 (89) 985369
Web page: http://www.cesifo-group.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Volker Nitsch, 2002. "Honey, I Shrunk the Currency Union Effect on Trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 457-474, 04.
- Alina Mika & Robert Zymek, 2016.
"Friends Without Benefits? New EMU Members and the Euro Effect on Trade,"
ESE Discussion Papers
269, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
- Alina Mika & Robert Zymek, 2017. "Friends Without Benefits? New EMU Members and the "Euro Effect" on Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series 6308, CESifo Group Munich.
- María Pía Olivero & Yoto V. Yotov, 2012. "Dynamic gravity: endogenous country size and asset accumulation," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 45(1), pages 64-92, February.
- Fernández-Val, Iván & Weidner, Martin, 2016. "Individual and time effects in nonlinear panel models with large N, T," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 291-312.
- Ivan Fernandez-Val & Martin Weidner, 2013. "Individual and time effects in nonlinear panel models with large N, T," CeMMAP working papers CWP60/13, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Ivan Fernandez-Val & Martin Weidner, 2015. "Individual and time effects in nonlinear panel models with large N, T," CeMMAP working papers CWP17/15, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Ivan Fernandez-Val & Martin Weidner, 2014. "Individual and time effects in nonlinear panel models with large N, T," CeMMAP working papers CWP32/14, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Tom Zylkin, 2016. "PPML_PANEL_SG: Stata module to estimate "structural gravity" models via Poisson PML," Statistical Software Components S458249, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 18 May 2017.
- Kareem, Fatima O., 2014. "Modeling and Estimation of Gravity Equation in the Presence of Zero Trade: A Validation of Hypotheses Using Africa's Trade Data," 140th Seminar, December 13-15, 2013, Perugia, Italy 163341, European Association of Agricultural Economists. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6464. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Klaus Wohlrabe)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.