The Currency Union Effect: A PPML Re-assessment with High-Dimensional Fixed Effects
Recent work on the effects of currency unions (CUs) on trade stresses the importance of using many countries and years in order to obtain reliable estimates. However, for large samples, computational issues limit choice of estimator, leaving an important methodological gap. To address this gap, we unveil an iterative PPML estimator which flexibly accounts for multilateral resistance, pair-specific heterogeneity, and correlated errors across countries and time. When applied to a comprehensive sample with more than 200 countries trading over 65 years, these innovations flip the conclusions of an otherwise rigorously-specified linear model. Our estimates for both the overall CU effect and the Euro effect specifically are economically small and statistically insignificant. The effect of non-Euro CUs, however, is large and significant. Notably, linear and PPML estimates of the Euro effect increasingly diverge as the sample size grows.
|Date of creation:||2017|
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- Ivan Fernandez-Val & Martin Weidner, 2013. "Individual and Time Effects in Nonlinear Panel Models with Large N, T," Papers 1311.7065, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2015.
- Ivan Fernandez-Val & Martin Weidner, 2015. "Individual and time effects in nonlinear panel models with large N, T," CeMMAP working papers CWP17/15, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Ivan Fernandez-Val & Martin Weidner, 2014. "Individual and time effects in nonlinear panel models with large N, T," CeMMAP working papers CWP32/14, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
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- Alina Mika & Robert Zymek, 2017. "Friends Without Benefits? New EMU Members and the "Euro Effect" on Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series 6308, CESifo Group Munich.
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- Tom Zylkin, 2016. "PPML_PANEL_SG: Stata module to estimate "structural gravity" models via Poisson PML," Statistical Software Components S458249, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 18 May 2017.
- Kareem, Fatima O., 2014. "Modeling and Estimation of Gravity Equation in the Presence of Zero Trade: A Validation of Hypotheses Using Africa's Trade Data," 140th Seminar, December 13-15, 2013, Perugia, Italy 163341, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Sergio Correia, 2014. "REGHDFE: Stata module to perform linear or instrumental-variable regression absorbing any number of high-dimensional fixed effects," Statistical Software Components S457874, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Aug 2016. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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