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Trade Wars and Trade Talks with Data

  • Ralph Ossa
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    How large are optimal tariffs? What tariffs would prevail in a worldwide trade war? How costly would be a breakdown of international trade policy cooperation? And what is the scope for future multilateral trade negotiations? I address these and other questions using a unified framework which nests traditional, new trade, and political economy motives for protection. I find that optimal tariffs average 62 percent, world trade war tariffs average 63 percent, the government welfare losses from a breakdown of international trade policy cooperation average 2.9 percent, and the possible government welfare gains from future multilateral trade negotiations average 0.5 percent. Optimal tariffs are tariffs which maximize a political economy augmented measure of real income.

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    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 17347.

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    Date of creation: Aug 2011
    Date of revision:
    Publication status: published as Ossa, Ralph. 2014. "Trade Wars and Trade Talks with Data." American Economic Review, 104(12): 4104-46.
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17347
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