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Quantitative Models of Commercial Policy

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  • Ralph Ossa

Abstract

What tariffs would countries impose if they did not have to fear any retaliation? What would occur if there was a complete breakdown of trade policy cooperation? What would be the outcome if countries engaged in fully efficient trade negotiations? And what would happen to trade policy cooperation if the world trading system had a different institutional design? While such questions feature prominently in the theoretical trade policy literature, they have proven difficult to address empirically, because they refer to what-if scenarios for which direct empirical counterparts are hard to find. In this chapter, I introduce research which suggests overcoming this difficulty by applying quantitative models of commercial policy.

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  • Ralph Ossa, 2016. "Quantitative Models of Commercial Policy," NBER Working Papers 22062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22062
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    3. Sonali Chowdhry & Julian Hinz & Katrin Kamin & Joschka Wanner, 2024. "Brothers in arms: the value of coalitions in sanctions regimes," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 39(118), pages 471-512.
    4. Crowley, Meredith A. & Han, Lu & Prayer, Thomas, 2024. "The pro-competitive effects of trade agreements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    5. Chunding Li & John Whalley & Chuantian He & Chuangwei Lin, 2021. "The 2008 Financial Crisis and the Lack of Retaliatory Trade Intervention," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 67(1), pages 78-105.
    6. Rainald Borck & Jun Oshiro & Yasuhiro Sato, 2022. "Property tax competition: A quantitative assessment," CEPA Discussion Papers 52, Center for Economic Policy Analysis.
    7. Mei, Yuan, 2020. "Sustainable cooperation in international trade: A quantitative analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    8. Jeffrey H. Bergstrand & Stephen R. Cray & Antoine Gervais, 2023. "Increasing Marginal Costs, Firm Heterogeneity,and the Gains from "Deep" International Trade Agreements," Cahiers de recherche 23-01, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    9. Miaojie Yu, 2020. "China-US Trade War and Trade Talk," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-981-15-3785-1, December.
    10. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Cray, Stephen R. & Gervais, Antoine, 2023. "Increasing marginal costs, firm heterogeneity, and the gains from “deep” international trade agreements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    11. Larch, Mario & Wanner, Joschka, 2024. "The consequences of non-participation in the Paris Agreement," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    12. Christopher Erceg & Andrea Prestipino & Andrea Raffo, 2018. "The Macroeconomic Effect of Trade Policy," 2018 Meeting Papers 221, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Chen, Dongxu & Huang, Yin & Tan, Nairong & Hong, Tao & Ma, Tao, 2024. "Cross-regional economic impact of carbon emission regulations: A quantitative spatial equilibrium model for China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 438-462.
    14. Kohler Wilhelm & Jung Benjamin, 2017. "Wie vorteilhaft ist internationaler Handel?: Ein neuer Ansatz zur Vermessung der Gewinne," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 32-55, April.
    15. Carlos Caceres & Mr. Diego A. Cerdeiro & Rui Mano, 2019. "Trade Wars and Trade Deals: Estimated Effects using a Multi-Sector Model," IMF Working Papers 2019/143, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Dr. Laurence Wicht, 2020. "A multi-sector analysis of Switzerland's gains from trade," Working Papers 2020-20, Swiss National Bank.
    17. Inga Heiland, 2017. "Five Essays on International Trade, Factor Flows and the Gains from Globalization," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 74.
    18. Heiland, Inga, 2016. "Global Risk Sharing Through Trade in Goods and Assets: Theory and Evidence," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145821, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. Kyle Bagwell & Robert W. Staiger & Ali Yurukoglu, 2021. "Quantitative Analysis of Multiparty Tariff Negotiations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(4), pages 1595-1631, July.
    20. Luca Salvatici & Silvia Nenci, 2017. "New features, forgotten costs and counterfactual gains of the international trading system," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 44(4), pages 592-633.
    21. Beshkar, Mostafa & Shourideh, Ali, 2020. "Optimal trade policy with trade imbalances," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 65-82.
    22. ARA Tomohiro, 2021. "Competition, Productivity and Trade, Reconsidered," Discussion papers 21032, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    23. Mr. Lisandro Abrego & Maria Alejandra Amado & Tunc Gursoy & Garth P. Nicholls & Hector Perez-Saiz, 2019. "The African Continental Free Trade Agreement: Welfare Gains Estimates from a General Equilibrium Model," IMF Working Papers 2019/124, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Bond, Eric W. & Duan, Yuwan & Ji, Ting & Lu, Yi, 2023. "Trade and welfare effects of export tax: Theory and evidence from China's incomplete export VAT rebate," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 542-560.
    25. Lashkaripour, Ahmad, 2021. "The cost of a global tariff war: A sufficient statistics approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

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