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Who Benefits from Regional Trade Agreements? The View from the Stock Market

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  • Moser, Christoph
  • Rose, Andrew K

Abstract

The effects of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) are disputed. In this paper, we assess these effects using capital market data and an event-study approach, using a daily data set covering a thousand announcements spanning over eighty economies and a hundred RTAs over twenty recent years. We measure the effects of news concerning RTAs on the returns of national stock markets, adjusted for international stock market movements. We then link these excess returns to features of the RTA members and the agreements themselves. We find evidence of the natural trading partner hypothesis; stock markets rise more when RTAs are signed between countries that already engage in high volumes of trade. Stock markets also rise more when poorer countries sign RTAs.

Suggested Citation

  • Moser, Christoph & Rose, Andrew K, 2011. "Who Benefits from Regional Trade Agreements? The View from the Stock Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 8566, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8566
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    3. Maria V. Sokolova, 2016. "Exchange Rates, International Trade and Growth: Re-Evaluation of Undervaluation," IHEID Working Papers 05-2016, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    4. Crowley, Meredith A. & Meng, Ning & Song, Huasheng, 2019. "Policy shocks and stock market returns: Evidence from Chinese solar panels," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 148-169.
    5. Breinlich, Holger, 2015. "The Effect of Trade Liberalization on Firm-Level Profits: An Event-Study Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 11011, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Sung Jin Kang, Hongshik Lee, Joonhyung Lee, 2013. "FDI Externalities and the Response of the Korean Stock Market," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 29, pages 119-137.
    7. Huang, Xuan & An, Haizhong & Fang, Wei & Gao, Xiangyun & Wang, Lijun & Sun, Xiaoqi, 2016. "Impact assessment of international anti-dumping events on synchronization and comovement of the Chinese photovoltaic stocks," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 459-469.
    8. Federico Esposito & Marcelo Bianconi & Marco Sammon, 2020. "Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0834, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
    9. Gabriele Spilker & Thomas Bernauer & In Song Kim & Helen Milner & Iain Osgood & Dustin Tingley, 2018. "Trade at the margin: Estimating the economic implications of preferential trade agreements," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 189-242, June.
    10. Egger, Peter & Zhu, Jiaqing, 2019. "The U.S.-Chinese Trade War: An Event Study of Stock-Market Responses," CEPR Discussion Papers 14164, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Egger, Peter, 2013. "What determines BITs?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 107-122.
    12. Marcelo Bianconi & Federico Esposito & Marco Sammon, 2019. "Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0830, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
    13. Mohammad M Rahaman, 2016. "Chinese import competition and the provisions for external debt financing in the US," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 47(8), pages 898-928, October.
    14. Dieter Smeets & Marco Zimmermann, 2013. "Did the EU Summits Succeed in Convincing the Markets during the Recent Crisis?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(6), pages 1158-1177, November.
    15. Haji Ali Beigi, Maryam & Budzinski, Oliver, 2012. "On the use of event studies to evaluate economic policy decisions: A note of caution," Ilmenau Economics Discussion Papers 80, Ilmenau University of Technology, Institute of Economics.
    16. Gnutzmann, Hinnerk & Gnutzmann-Mkrtchyan, Arevik & Korn, Tobias, 2021. "Consequences of FTA Withdrawal: Evidence from 'Uxit'," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-681, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    17. Davies, Ronald B. & Studnicka, Zuzanna, 2018. "The heterogeneous impact of Brexit: Early indications from the FTSE," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 1-17.
    18. repec:udt:wpbsdt:2012-03 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Andrew N. Greenland & Mihai Ion & John W. Lopresti & Peter K. Schott, 2020. "Using Equity Market Reactions to Infer Exposure to Trade Liberalization," NBER Working Papers 27510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    assets; data; empirical; event study; income; low; natural; panel; producers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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