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Who Benefits from Regional Trade Agreements? The View from the Stock Market

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  • Moser, Christoph
  • Rose, Andrew K

Abstract

The effects of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) are disputed. In this paper, we assess these effects using capital market data and an event-study approach, using a daily data set covering a thousand announcements spanning over eighty economies and a hundred RTAs over twenty recent years. We measure the effects of news concerning RTAs on the returns of national stock markets, adjusted for international stock market movements. We then link these excess returns to features of the RTA members and the agreements themselves. We find evidence of the natural trading partner hypothesis; stock markets rise more when RTAs are signed between countries that already engage in high volumes of trade. Stock markets also rise more when poorer countries sign RTAs.

Suggested Citation

  • Moser, Christoph & Rose, Andrew K, 2011. "Who Benefits from Regional Trade Agreements? The View from the Stock Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 8566, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8566
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    Cited by:

    1. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Egger, Peter, 2013. "What determines BITs?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 107-122.
    2. Mohammad M Rahaman, 2016. "Chinese import competition and the provisions for external debt financing in the US," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 47(8), pages 898-928, October.
    3. Dieter Smeets & Marco Zimmermann, 2013. "Did the EU Summits Succeed in Convincing the Markets during the Recent Crisis?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(6), pages 1158-1177, November.
    4. Breinlich, Holger, 2015. "The Effect of Trade Liberalization on Firm-Level Profits: An Event-Study Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 11011, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Sung Jin Kang, Hongshik Lee, Joonhyung Lee, 2013. "FDI Externalities and the Response of the Korean Stock Market," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 29, pages 119-137.
    6. Haji Ali Beigi, Maryam & Budzinski, Oliver, 2012. "On the use of event studies to evaluate economic policy decisions: A note of caution," Ilmenau Economics Discussion Papers 80, Ilmenau University of Technology, Institute of Economics.
    7. Huang, Xuan & An, Haizhong & Fang, Wei & Gao, Xiangyun & Wang, Lijun & Sun, Xiaoqi, 2016. "Impact assessment of international anti-dumping events on synchronization and comovement of the Chinese photovoltaic stocks," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 459-469.
    8. Maria V. Sokolova, 2016. "Exchange Rates, International Trade and Growth: Re-Evaluation of Undervaluation," IHEID Working Papers 05-2016, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    9. repec:udt:wpbsdt:2012-03 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    assets; data; empirical; event study; income; low; natural; panel; producers;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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