Import Competition and the Stock Market Return to Capital
We measure the responsiveness of returns to capital invested in six U.S. industries to shocks to the prices of competing import goods. Recognizing that most capital services are not traded on spot rental markets, we treat the intersectoral mobility of capital as the outgrowth of investment behavior. Then the return to capital is realized as an asset return to equity holders. . We model expected returns by CAPM, and relate "excess" returns in a period to unanticipated shocks to the variables that affect current and future profits. We find that positive shocks to import prices cause higher than normal stock market returns in all six industries. The magnitudes of the responses are consistent with the hypothesis that capital is highly sector specific in five of these industries.
|Date of creation:||Oct 1987|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as American Economic Review, Vol. 79, No. 5, pp. 1065-1087, (December 1989).|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fumio Hayashi, 1981.
"Tobin's Marginal q and Average a : A Neoclassical Interpretation,"
457, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-24, January.
- Nancy L. Rose, 1985. "The Incidence of Regulatory Rents in the Motor Carrier Industry," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 16(3), pages 299-318, Autumn.
- Michael C. Jensen, 1972. "Capital Markets: Theory and Evidence," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 3(2), pages 357-398, Autumn.
- Mussa, Michael, 1974. "Tariffs and the Distribution of Income: The Importance of Factor Specificity, Substitutability, and Intensity in the Short and Long Run," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1191-1203, Nov.-Dec..
- Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
- Schwert, G William, 1981. "Using Financial Data to Measure Effects of Regulation," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 24(1), pages 121-58, April.
- Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1979.
"Spurious Periodicity in Inappropriately Detrended Time Series,"
The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS)
161, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1981. "Spurious Periodicity in Inappropriately Detrended Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 741-51, May.
- John M. Abowd & Thomas Lemieux, 1990.
"The Effects of International Competiton on Collective Bargaining Outcomes: A Comparison of the United States and Canada,"
NBER Working Papers
3352, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John M. Abowd & Thomas Lemieux, 1991. "The Effects of International Competition on Collective Bargaining Outcomes: A Comparison of the United States and Canada," NBER Chapters, in: Immigration, Trade, and the Labor Market, pages 343-367 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ronald W. Jones, 1965. "The Structure of Simple General Equilibrium Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73, pages 557.
- Hartigan, James C & Perry, Philip R & Kamma, Sreenivas, 1986. "The Value of Administered Protection: A Capital Market Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(4), pages 610-17, November.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1973. "A Note on the Market Model and the Two-Parameter Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 28(5), pages 1181-85, December.
- Wolfgang F. Stolper & Paul A. Samuelson, 1941. "Protection and Real Wages," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 58-73.
- Grossman, Gene M., 1986.
"Imports as a cause of injury: The case of the U.S. steel industry,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 20(3-4), pages 201-223, May.
- Gene M. Grossman, 1984. "Imports as a Cause of Injury: The Case of the U.S. Steel Industry," NBER Working Papers 1494, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Edward E. Leamer, 1982.
"Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics,"
UCLA Economics Working Papers
239, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Gibbons, Michael R, 1987. "The Interrelations of Finance and Economics: Empirical Perspectives," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 35-41, May.
- Pakes, Ariel, 1985.
"On Patents, R & D, and the Stock Market Rate of Return,"
3436409, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Pakes, Ariel, 1985. "On Patents, R&D, and the Stock Market Rate of Return," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 390-409, April.
- Mayer, Wolfgang, 1974. "Short-Run and Long-Run Equilibrium for a Small Open Economy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(5), pages 955-67, Sept./Oct.
- Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2420. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.