IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Are Free Trade Agreements contagious?

  • Baldwin, Richard
  • Jaimovich, Dany

This paper tests the hypothesis that the domino-like spread of regionalism is partly driven by ‘defensive’ FTAs, i.e. FTAs signed to reduce discrimination created by third-nation FTAs. A theory-based measure is used to test contagion against alternative determinants of regionalism. The main finding is that contagion is present in our data and robust to various econometric specifications, samples, and inclusions of various economic and political controls including the Baier–Bergstrand controls. Some support is found for political theories that stress ‘political distance’ but none for those that stress ‘slow multilateralism’.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022199612000591
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 88 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1-16

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:88:y:2012:i:1:p:1-16
DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2012.03.009
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "The move toward free trade zones," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 7-58.
  2. Mathias Thoenig & Thierry Mayer & Philippe Martin, 2010. "The geography of conflicts and free trade agreements," Sciences Po publications 7740, Sciences Po.
  3. Levy, Philip I, 1997. "A Political-Economic Analysis of Free-Trade Agreements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 506-19, September.
  4. Freund, Caroline & Ornelas, Emanuel, 2010. "Regional trade agreements," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5314, The World Bank.
  5. I-Hui Cheng & Howard J. Wall, 2004. "Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade and integration," Working Papers 1999-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  6. A. Colin Cameron & Jonah B. Gelbach & Douglas L. Miller, 2011. "Robust Inference With Multiway Clustering," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 238-249, April.
  7. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Vance Martin & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo, 2004. "Empirical Modeling of Contagion; A Review of Methodologies," IMF Working Papers 04/78, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Neumayer, Eric & Plümper, Thomas, 2010. "Spatial Effects in Dyadic Data," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 64(01), pages 145-166, January.
  9. Martin, Philippe & Mayer, Thierry & Thoenig, Mathias, 2005. "Make Trade not War?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5218, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Raymond Riezman, 1997. "Can Bilateral Trade Agreements Help Induce Free Trade?," International Trade 9706001, EconWPA.
  11. Tammy Holmes, 2005. "What Drives Regional Trade Agreements that Work?," IHEID Working Papers 07-2005, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  12. King, Gary & Zeng, Langche, 2001. "Explaining Rare Events in International Relations," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 55(03), pages 693-715, June.
  13. Baldwin, Richard & Jaimovich, Dany, 2012. "Are Free Trade Agreements contagious?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 1-16.
  14. Richard E. Baldwin, 1997. "The Causes of Regionalism," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(7), pages 865-888, November.
  15. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Baldwin, Richard E., 2007. "Managing the Noodle Bowl: The Fragility of East Asian Regionalism," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 7, Asian Development Bank.
  17. Grossman, G.M. & Helpman, E., 1992. "Protection for Sale," Papers 21-92, Tel Aviv.
  18. Richard Baldwin, 1993. "A Domino Theory of Regionalism," NBER Working Papers 4465, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Tovar, Patricia, 2009. "The effects of loss aversion on trade policy: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 154-167, June.
  20. Richard E. Baldwin & Frédéric Robert-Nicoud, 2007. "Entry and Asymmetric Lobbying: Why Governments Pick Losers," CEP Discussion Papers dp0791, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  21. André Sapir, 2001. "Domino effects in Western European trade, 1960-92," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8138, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  22. Aghion, Philippe & Antras, Pol & Helpman, Elhanan, 2007. "Negotiating free trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 1-30, September.
  23. Sapir, Andre, 2001. "Domino effects in Western European regional trade, 1960-1992," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 377-388, June.
  24. Melatos, Mark & Woodland, Alan, 2007. "Endogenous trade bloc formation in an asymmetric world," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 901-924, May.
  25. Baldwin, Richard & Rieder, Roland, 2007. "A Test of Endogenous Trade Bloc Formation Theory on EU Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 6389, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  26. Mansfield, Edward D. & Pevehouse, Jon C., 2000. "Trade Blocs, Trade Flows, and International Conflict," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(04), pages 775-808, September.
  27. Raymond RIEZMAN, 2013. "Customs Unions and the Core," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: International Trade Agreements and Political Economy, chapter 3, pages 33-43 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  28. Vincent Vicard, 2006. "Trade, Conflicts, and Political Integration: the Regional Interplays," CESifo Working Paper Series 1839, CESifo Group Munich.
  29. Mansfield, Edward D. & Reinhardt, Eric, 2003. "Multilateral Determinants of Regionalism: The Effects of GATT/WTO on the Formation of Preferential Trading Arrangements," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(04), pages 829-862, September.
  30. Martin Gassebner & Noel Gaston & Michael J. Lamla, 2011. "The Inverse Domino Effect: Are Economic Reforms Contagious?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(1), pages 183-200, 02.
  31. Caroline Freund, 2010. "Third‐country Effects of Regional Trade Agreements," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(11), pages 1589-1605, November.
  32. Pravin Krishna, 1998. "Regionalism and Multilateralism: A Political Economy Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(1), pages 227-251.
  33. Baldwin, Richard, 2011. "21st century regionalism: Filling the gap between 21st century trade and 20th century trade rules," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2011-08, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
  34. Bond, Eric W. & Syropoulos, Constantinos, 1996. "The size of trading blocs Market power and world welfare effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-4), pages 411-437, May.
  35. Richard E. Baldwin, 1998. "Agglomeration and Endogenous Capital," NBER Working Papers 6459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  36. repec:dau:papers:123456789/10840 is not listed on IDEAS
  37. Jonah B. Gelbach & Doug Miller, 2009. "Robust Inference with Multi-way Clustering," Working Papers 99, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  38. Sang-Seung, Yi, 1996. "Endogenous formation of customs unions under imperfect competition: open regionalism is good," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 153-177, August.
  39. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g8m2hh491 is not listed on IDEAS
  40. Dany Jaimovich, 2012. "A Bayesian spatial probit estimation of Free Trade Agreement contagion," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(6), pages 579-583, April.
  41. Fernandez, Raquel & Portes, Jonathan, 1998. "Returns to Regionalism: An Analysis of Nontraditional Gains from Regional Trade Agreements," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 12(2), pages 197-220, May.
  42. Neal, Larry & Barbezat, Daniel, 1998. "The Economics of the European Union and the Economies of Europe," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195110685, December.
  43. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00270618 is not listed on IDEAS
  44. Marcel Fafchamps & Flore Gubert, 2007. "Risk Sharing and Network Formation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 75-79, May.
  45. Bhagwati, Jagdish, 2008. "Termites in the Trading System: How Preferential Agreements Undermine Free Trade," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195331653, December.
  46. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2004. "Economic determinants of free trade agreements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 29-63, October.
  47. Caroline Freund & Emanuel Ornelas, 2010. "Regional trade agreements: blessing or burden?," CentrePiece - The Magazine for Economic Performance 313, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  48. Pédussel Wu, Jennifer, 2004. "Measuring and explaining levels of regional economic integration," ZEI Working Papers B 12-2004, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
  49. Scott L. Baier & Jeffrey H. Bergstrand & Peter Egger, 2007. "The New Regionalism: Causes and Consequences," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 109, pages 9-29.
  50. Marcel Fafchamps & Flore Gubert, 2007. "Risk Sharing and Network Formation," Economics Series Working Papers GPRG-WPS-067, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  51. Vicard, Vincent, 2012. "Trade, conflict, and political integration: Explaining the heterogeneity of regional trade agreements," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 54-71.
  52. Caroline Freund, 2000. "Different Paths to Free Trade: The Gains from Regionalism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(4), pages 1317-1341.
  53. Gary Chamberlain, 1980. "Analysis of Covariance with Qualitative Data," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 225-238.
  54. Egger, Peter & Larch, Mario, 2008. "Interdependent preferential trade agreement memberships: An empirical analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 384-399, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:88:y:2012:i:1:p:1-16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.