IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Are Free Trade Agreements Contagious?

  • Richard Baldwin
  • Dany Jaimovich

This paper presents empirical evidence on the extent to which FTAs are gcontagious h, using empirical techniques inspired by the study of contagion in exchange rate crises. Applying a series of different econometric techniques, it tests the null hypothesis that the signing of an FTA between one nation fs trade partners has no affect on the probability of the nation signing a new FTA. The hypothesis is tested against other political, economical and geographical determinants of the FTA formation previously stated in the literature, finding evidence that the contagion phenomenon is present in different specifications and samples.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://gcoe.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/research/discussion/2008/pdf/gd09-057.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University in its series Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series with number gd09-057.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Apr 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hst:ghsdps:gd09-057
Contact details of provider: Postal:
2-1 Naka, Kunitachi City, Tokyo 186

Phone: +81-42-580-8327
Fax: +81-42-580-8333
Web page: http://www.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Baldwin, Richard & Jaimovich, Dany, 2009. "Are Free Trade Agreements Contagious?," CCES Discussion Paper Series 12, Center for Research on Contemporary Economic Systems, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
  2. Sapir, Andre, 2001. "Domino effects in Western European regional trade, 1960-1992," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 377-388, June.
  3. Sang-Seung, Yi, 1996. "Endogenous formation of customs unions under imperfect competition: open regionalism is good," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 153-177, August.
  4. Cameron, A. Colin & Gelbach, Jonah B. & Miller, Douglas L., 2011. "Robust Inference With Multiway Clustering," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(2), pages 238-249.
  5. Caroline Freund, 2010. "Third‐country Effects of Regional Trade Agreements," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(11), pages 1589-1605, November.
  6. Martin Gassebner & Noel Gaston & Michael Lamla, 2008. "The Inverse Domino Effect: Are Economic Reforms Contagious?," KOF Working papers 08-187, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  7. Martin, V. & Dungey & M., 2004. "Empirical Modelling of Contagion: A Review of Methodologies," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 574, Econometric Society.
  8. Philippe Martin & Thierry Mayer & Mathias Thoenig, 2008. "Make Trade not War?," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00293018, HAL.
  9. Raymond Riezman, 1999. "Can Bilateral Trade Agreements Help Induce Free Trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 32(3), pages 751-766, May.
  10. Vincent Vicard, 2006. "Trade, Conflicts, and Political Integration: the Regional Interplays," CESifo Working Paper Series 1839, CESifo Group Munich.
  11. Levy, Philip I, 1997. "A Political-Economic Analysis of Free-Trade Agreements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 506-19, September.
  12. Grossman, G.M. & Helpman, E., 1992. "Protection for Sale," Papers 162, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
  13. Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "The move toward free trade zones," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 7-58.
  14. Aghion, Philippe & Antras, Pol & Helpman, Elhanan, 2007. "Negotiating free trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 1-30, September.
  15. Freund, Caroline & Ornelas, Emanuel, 2010. "Regional trade agreements," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5314, The World Bank.
  16. Raymond RIEZMAN, 2013. "Customs Unions and the Core," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: International Trade Agreements and Political Economy, chapter 3, pages 33-43 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  17. Richard E. Baldwin, 1997. "The Causes of Regionalism," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(7), pages 865-888, November.
  18. André Sapir, 2001. "Domino effects in Western European trade, 1960-92," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8138, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  19. Martin, Philippe & Mayer, Thierry & Thoenig, Mathias, 2010. "The geography of conflicts and free trade agreements," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb) 1019, CEPREMAP.
  20. Tammy Holmes, 2005. "What Drives Regional Trade Agreements that Work?," IHEID Working Papers 07-2005, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  21. repec:dau:papers:123456789/10840 is not listed on IDEAS
  22. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g8m2hh491 is not listed on IDEAS
  23. Richard E. Baldwin & Frédéric Robert-Nicoud, 2007. "Entry and Asymmetric Lobbying: Why Governments Pick Losers," CEP Discussion Papers dp0791, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  24. Melatos, Mark & Woodland, Alan, 2007. "Endogenous trade bloc formation in an asymmetric world," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 901-924, May.
  25. Mansfield, Edward D. & Pevehouse, Jon C., 2000. "Trade Blocs, Trade Flows, and International Conflict," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(04), pages 775-808, September.
  26. I-Hui Cheng & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade and integration," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 49-63.
  27. King, Gary & Zeng, Langche, 2001. "Explaining Rare Events in International Relations," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 55(03), pages 693-715, June.
  28. Baldwin, Richard & Rieder, Roland, 2007. "A Test of Endogenous Trade Bloc Formation Theory on EU Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 6389, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  29. Baldwin, Richard, 2006. "Managing the Noodle Bowl: The Fragility of East Asian Regionalism," CEPR Discussion Papers 5561, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  30. Tovar, Patricia, 2009. "The effects of loss aversion on trade policy: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 154-167, June.
  31. Vicard, Vincent, 2012. "Trade, conflict, and political integration: Explaining the heterogeneity of regional trade agreements," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 54-71.
  32. Baldwin, Richard, 1993. "A Domino Theory of Regionalism," CEPR Discussion Papers 857, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  33. Egger, Peter & Larch, Mario, 2008. "Interdependent preferential trade agreement memberships: An empirical analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 384-399, December.
  34. Marcel Fafchamps & Flore Gubert, 2007. "Risk Sharing and Network Formation," Economics Series Working Papers GPRG-WPS-067, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  35. Baldwin, Richard E., 1999. "Agglomeration and endogenous capital," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 253-280, February.
  36. Scott L. Baier & Jeffrey H. Bergstrand & Peter Egger, 2007. "The New Regionalism: Causes and Consequences," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 109, pages 9-29.
  37. Pédussel Wu, Jennifer, 2004. "Measuring and explaining levels of regional economic integration," ZEI Working Papers B 12-2004, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
  38. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  39. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2004. "Economic determinants of free trade agreements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 29-63, October.
  40. Bhagwati, Jagdish, 2008. "Termites in the Trading System: How Preferential Agreements Undermine Free Trade," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195331653, December.
  41. Pravin Krishna, 1998. "Regionalism and Multilateralism: A Political Economy Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(1), pages 227-251.
  42. Gary Chamberlain, 1980. "Analysis of Covariance with Qualitative Data," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 225-238.
  43. Caroline Freund & Emanuel Ornelas, 2010. "Regional trade agreements: blessing or burden?," CentrePiece - The Magazine for Economic Performance 313, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  44. Caroline Freund, 2000. "Different Paths to Free Trade: The Gains from Regionalism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(4), pages 1317-1341.
  45. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00270618 is not listed on IDEAS
  46. Baldwin, Richard, 2011. "21st century regionalism: Filling the gap between 21st century trade and 20th century trade rules," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2011-08, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
  47. Mansfield, Edward D. & Reinhardt, Eric, 2003. "Multilateral Determinants of Regionalism: The Effects of GATT/WTO on the Formation of Preferential Trading Arrangements," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(04), pages 829-862, September.
  48. Dany Jaimovich, 2010. "A Bayesian spatial probit estimation of Free Trade Agreement contagion," IHEID Working Papers 07-2010, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  49. Fernandez, Raquel & Portes, Jonathan, 1998. "Returns to Regionalism: An Analysis of Nontraditional Gains from Regional Trade Agreements," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 12(2), pages 197-220, May.
  50. Neumayer, Eric & Plümper, Thomas, 2010. "Spatial Effects in Dyadic Data," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 64(01), pages 145-166, January.
  51. Bond, Eric W. & Syropoulos, Constantinos, 1996. "The size of trading blocs Market power and world welfare effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-4), pages 411-437, May.
  52. Neal, Larry & Barbezat, Daniel, 1998. "The Economics of the European Union and the Economies of Europe," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195110685, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hst:ghsdps:gd09-057. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Tatsuji Makino)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.