IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Who benefits from regional trade agreements? The view from the stock market

  • Moser, Christoph
  • Rose, Andrew K.

The consequences of regional trade agreements (RTAs) on countries׳ welfare are disputed. In this paper, we assess these effects using stock returns from a recent data set that spans over 200 RTA announcements, 80 economies, and 20 years. We measure the effects of news concerning RTAs on the returns of national stock markets, after adjusting these returns for international stock market movements. We then link these abnormal returns to features of the RTA members and the agreements themselves. We find strong evidence of the natural trading partner hypothesis; stock markets rise more when RTAs are signed between countries that already engage in high volumes of trade. Stock markets also rise more when poorer countries sign RTAs, and when RTAs are signed with smaller partners. We also find no evidence that capital markets expect significant trade diversion effects.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0014292114000208
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 68 (2014)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 31-47

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:68:y:2014:i:c:p:31-47
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eer

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Antonin Aviat & Nicolas Coeurdacier, 2007. "The geography of trade in goods and asset holdings," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pd, Sciences Po.
  2. Baldwin, Richard & Jaimovich, Dany, 2009. "Are Free Trade Agreements Contagious?," CCES Discussion Paper Series 12, Center for Research on Contemporary Economic Systems, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
  3. Caroline Freund, 2010. "Third‐country Effects of Regional Trade Agreements," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(11), pages 1589-1605, November.
  4. Nina Pavcnik, 2002. "Trade Liberalization, Exit, and Productivity Improvements: Evidence from Chilean Plants," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(1), pages 245-276.
  5. Baldwin, Richard, 2008. "Big-Think Regionalism: a Critical Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 6874, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2007. "Firms in International Trade," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 105-130, Summer.
  7. Melitz, Marc J, 2002. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," CEPR Discussion Papers 3381, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997. "Event Studies in Economics and Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-39, March.
  9. Prabhala, N R, 1997. "Conditional Methods in Event Studies and an Equilibrium Justification for Standard Event-Study Procedures," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(1), pages 1-38.
  10. Marco Pagano & Fabio Panetta & Luigi Zingales, . "Why Do Companies Go Public? An Empirical Analysis," CRSP working papers 330, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  11. Portes, Richard & Rey, Helene & Oh, Yonghyup, 2001. "Information and capital flows: The determinants of transactions in financial assets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 783-796, May.
  12. Daniel Trefler, 2001. "The Long and Short of the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement," NBER Working Papers 8293, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Freund, Caroline & Ornelas, Emanuel, 2010. "Regional trade agreements," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5314, The World Bank.
  14. John Romalis, 2007. "NAFTA's and CUSFTA's Impact on International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(3), pages 416-435, August.
  15. Arindrajit Dube & Ethan Kaplan & Suresh Naidu, 2011. "Coups, Corporations, and Classified Information," NBER Working Papers 16952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Richard Portes & Hélène Rey, 2001. "The Determinants of Cross-Border Equity Flows," DELTA Working Papers 2001-08, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  17. Grossman, Gene M., 1983. "Partially mobile capital : A general approach to two-sector trade theory," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-2), pages 1-17, August.
  18. Chris Papageorgiou & Christian Henn & Theo S. Eicher, 2008. "Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited; Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects," IMF Working Papers 08/66, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Karolyi, G. Andrew & Lee, Kuan-Hui & van Dijk, Mathijs A., 2012. "Understanding commonality in liquidity around the world," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 82-112.
  20. Joachim Wagner, 2012. "International trade and firm performance: a survey of empirical studies since 2006," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 148(2), pages 235-267, June.
  21. Peter Egger & Mario Larch & Kevin E. Staub & Rainer Winkelmann, 2010. "The Trade Effects of Endogenous Preferential Trade Agreements," SOI - Working Papers 1013, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
  22. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2004. "Economic determinants of free trade agreements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 29-63, October.
  23. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 691-751, September.
  24. Ching-Yi Lin & Paul Bergin, 2011. "The Dynamic Effects of Currency Union on Trade," 2011 Meeting Papers 291, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  25. Alla Lileeva & Daniel Trefler, 2010. "Improved Access to Foreign Markets Raises Plant-Level Productivity... for Some Plants," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 125(3), pages 1051-1099, August.
  26. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2009. "Estimating the effects of free trade agreements on international trade flows using matching econometrics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 63-76, February.
  27. Hoekman , Bernard & Nicita, Alessandro, 2008. "Trade Policy, Trade Costs, and Developing Country Trade," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4797, The World Bank.
  28. Arvind Panagariya, 2000. "Preferential Trade Liberalization: The Traditional Theory and New Developments," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 287-331, June.
  29. Grossman, Gene M & Levinsohn, James A, 1989. "Import Competition and the Stock Market Return to Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1065-87, December.
  30. Aileen J. Thompson, 1993. "The Anticipated Sectoral Adjustment to the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement: An Event Study Analysis," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 26(2), pages 253-71, May.
  31. Anne-Célia Disdier & Keith Head, 2008. "The Puzzling Persistence of the Distance Effect on Bilateral Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(1), pages 37-48, February.
  32. Thompson, Aileen J., 1994. "Trade liberalization, comparative advantage, and scale economies stock market evidence from Canada," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1-2), pages 1-27, August.
  33. Carrere, Celine, 2006. "Revisiting the effects of regional trade agreements on trade flows with proper specification of the gravity model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 223-247, February.
  34. Ornelas, Emanuel, 2005. "Trade creating free trade areas and the undermining of multilateralism," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(7), pages 1717-1735, October.
  35. Frankel, Jeffrey & Stein, Ernesto & Wei, Shang-jin, 1995. "Trading blocs and the Americas: The natural, the unnatural, and the super-natural," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 61-95, June.
  36. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g708pipbp is not listed on IDEAS
  37. Peter Rodriguez, 2003. "Investor Expectations and the North American Free Trade Agreement," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(1), pages 206-218, February.
  38. Jen Baggs & James A Brander, 2006. "Trade liberalization, profitability, and financial leverage," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(2), pages 196-211, March.
  39. Nagpurnanand R. Prabhala, 1997. "Conditional Methods in Event-Studies and an Equilibrium Justification for Standard Event-Study Procedures," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm55, Yale School of Management.
  40. Egger, Peter & Larch, Mario, 2011. "An assessment of the Europe agreements' effects on bilateral trade, GDP, and welfare," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 263-279, February.
  41. Magee, Christopher S.P., 2008. "New measures of trade creation and trade diversion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 349-362, July.
  42. Magee Christopher S, 2003. "Endogenous Preferential Trade Agreements: An Empirical Analysis," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-19, December.
  43. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
  44. Carlo Perroni & John Whalley, 1994. "The New Regionalism: Trade Liberalization or Insurance?," NBER Working Papers 4626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  45. Lawrence H. Summers, 1991. "Regionalism and the world trading system," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 295-301.
  46. repec:inr:wpaper:21709 is not listed on IDEAS
  47. Scott L. Baier & Jeffrey H. Bergstrand, 2005. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members’ international trade?," Working Paper 2005-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  48. Egger, Peter & Larch, Mario, 2008. "Interdependent preferential trade agreement memberships: An empirical analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 384-399, December.
  49. Fugazza, Marco & Nicita, Alessandro, 2013. "The direct and relative effects of preferential market access," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 357-368.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:68:y:2014:i:c:p:31-47. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.