IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedpwp/14-14.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Trade adjustment dynamics and the welfare gains from trade

Author

Listed:
  • Alessandria, George

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)

  • Choi, Horag

    (Monash University)

  • Ruhl, Kim J.

    (NYU Stern School of Business)

Abstract

We build a micro-founded two-country dynamic general equilibrium model in which trade responds more to a cut in tariffs in the long run than in the short run. The model introduces a time element to the fixed-variable cost trade-off in a heterogeneous producer trade model. Thus, the dynamics of aggregate trade adjustment arise from producer-level decisions to invest in lowering their future variable export costs. The model is calibrated to match salient features of new exporter growth and provides a new estimate of the exporting technology. At the micro level, we find that new exporters commonly incur substantial losses in the first three years in the export market and that export profits are backloaded. At the macro level, the slow export expansion at the producer level leads to sluggishness in the aggregate response of exports to a change in tariffs, with a long-run trade elasticity that is 2.9 times the short-run trade elasticity. We estimate the welfare gains from trade from a cut in tariffs, taking into account the transition period. While the intensity of trade expands slowly, consumption overshoots its new steady-state level, so the welfare gains are almost 15 times larger than the long-run change in consumption. Models without this dynamic export decision underestimate the gains to lowering tariffs, particularly when constrained to also match the gradual expansion of aggregate trade flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandria, George & Choi, Horag & Ruhl, Kim J., 2014. "Trade adjustment dynamics and the welfare gains from trade," Working Papers 14-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:14-14
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/publications/working-papers/2014/wp14-14.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ramanarayanan, Ananth, 2017. "Imported inputs, irreversibility, and international trade dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 1-18.
    2. Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr & Ryan Monarch, 2015. "Learning and the Value of Relationships in International Trade," 2015 Meeting Papers 668, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Michael E. Waugh, 2017. "Firm Dynamics and Immigration: The Case of High-Skilled Immigration," NBER Chapters,in: High-Skilled Migration to the United States and its Economic Consequences National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr & Ryan Monarch, 2015. "Learning and the Value of Relationships in International Trade," 2015 Meeting Papers 668, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Fitzgerald, Doireann & Haller, Stephanie & Yedid-Levi, Yaniv, 2016. "How Exporters Grow," Staff Report 524, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    6. repec:pal:imfecr:v:65:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1057_s41308-017-0036-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Fabio Ghironi, 2018. "Macro needs micro," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(1-2), pages 195-218.
    8. Ravikumar, B. & Santacreu, Ana Maria & Sposi, Michael J., 2017. "Capital Accumulation and Dynamic Gains from Trade," Working Papers 2017-5, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    9. Kim J. Ruhl & Jonathan L. Willis, 2017. "New Exporter Dynamics," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 58, pages 703-726, August.
    10. Cebreros Zurita Carlos Alfonso, 2016. "The Rewards of Self-Discovery: Learning and Firm Exporter Dynamics," Working Papers 2016-08, Banco de México.
    11. Wyatt J. Brooks & Pau S. Pujolas, 2016. "Captial Accumulation and the Welfare Gains from Trade," Department of Economics Working Papers 2016-03, McMaster University, revised Jul 2017.
    12. Elhanan Helpman & Oleg Itskhoki, "undated". "Trade Liberalization and Labor Market Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms," Working Paper 199161, Harvard University OpenScholar.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sunk cost; Fixed cost; Establishment heterogeneity; Tariffs; Welfare; DSGE;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Lists

    This item is featured on the following reading lists or Wikipedia pages:
    1. Canadian Macro Study Group

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:14-14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Beth Paul). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/frbphus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.