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The Anticipated Sectoral Adjustment to the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement: An Event Study Analysis

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  • Aileen J. Thompson

Abstract

In this paper, a stock market event study is employed to investigate investors' expectations about the consequences of the Canada-U. S. Free Trade Agreement for manufacturing industries in Canada. The author finds that industry-level abnormal returns corresponding to only one event, reaching the agreement in October 1987, are jointly significant and consistent with prior hypotheses about the impact of the agreement. Although only a few of these abnormal returns are statistically significant, all of them have the anticipated signs and some are quite large, suggesting substantial profits and losses during the adjustment to free trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Aileen J. Thompson, 1993. "The Anticipated Sectoral Adjustment to the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement: An Event Study Analysis," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 26(2), pages 253-271, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:26:y:1993:i:2:p:253-71
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Moser, Christoph & Rose, Andrew K., 2014. "Who benefits from regional trade agreements? The view from the stock market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 31-47.
    2. Marc J. Melitz & Daniel Trefler, 2012. "Gains from Trade When Firms Matter," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 91-118, Spring.
    3. Breinlich, Holger, 2014. "Heterogeneous firm-level responses to trade liberalization: A test using stock price reactions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 270-285.
    4. Rehbein, Kathleen & Starks, Laura T., 1995. "Changes in U.S. trade policies: the wealth effects on Japanese steel firms," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 309-327, September.
    5. Boardman, Anthony & Vertinsky, Ilan & Whistler, Diana, 1997. "Using information diffusion models to estimate the impacts of regulatory events on publicly traded firms," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 283-300, January.
    6. Yang, Tina & Zhao, Shan, 2014. "CEO duality and firm performance: Evidence from an exogenous shock to the competitive environment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 534-552.
    7. Breinlich, Holger, 2015. "The Effect of Trade Liberalization on Firm-Level Profits: An Event-Study Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 11011, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Caroline L. Freund & John McLaren, 1999. "On the dynamics of trade diversion: evidence from four trade blocs," International Finance Discussion Papers 637, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Hanson, Robert C. & Song, Moon H., 1998. "Shareholder wealth effects of free trade: U.S. and Mexican stock market response to nafta," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 209-224.
    10. Kara M. Reynolds, 2005. "Anticipated versus Realized Benefits: Can Event Studies Be Used To Predict the Impact of New Regulations?," International Trade 0512005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Baggs, Jennifer & Brander, James A., 2005. "Liberalisation des echanges, rentabilite et levier financier," Direction des etudes analytiques : documents de recherche 2005256f, Statistics Canada, Direction des etudes analytiques.
    12. Dieter Smeets & Marco Zimmermann, 2013. "Did the EU Summits Succeed in Convincing the Markets during the Recent Crisis?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(6), pages 1158-1177, November.

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