IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/empeco/v60y2021i1d10.1007_s00181-020-01979-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic network and own effects on abnormal returns: evidence from China’s stock market

Author

Listed:
  • Peter H. Egger

    (ETH Zurich
    CEPR
    CESifo)

  • Jiaqing Zhu

    (Guangdong University of Foreign Studies)

Abstract

This paper addresses the question of how to model the process of abnormal returns on individual stocks. It postulates a framework, where abnormal returns are generated by a process which features two autoregressive components, one stock-specific and one related to network effects. This process deviates from customary ones in that the parameters are specific to each stock/firm, that the autoregressive process is explicitly modelled instead of using cumulative abnormal returns over a pre-specified window, and that network effects are present. Abandoning either one of those deviations is rejected by data on Chinese stocks in 2018 and 2019, an episode which is significant for an abnormal stock-market returns analysis, as it was characterized by numerous tariff-setting events related to the “trade war” between the USA and China.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter H. Egger & Jiaqing Zhu, 2021. "Dynamic network and own effects on abnormal returns: evidence from China’s stock market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 487-512, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:60:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s00181-020-01979-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-020-01979-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00181-020-01979-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00181-020-01979-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    2. Moser, Christoph & Rose, Andrew K., 2014. "Who benefits from regional trade agreements? The view from the stock market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 31-47.
    3. Aileen J. Thompson, 1993. "The Anticipated Sectoral Adjustment to the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement: An Event Study Analysis," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 26(2), pages 253-271, May.
    4. Breinlich, Holger, 2014. "Heterogeneous firm-level responses to trade liberalization: A test using stock price reactions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 270-285.
    5. Vasilis Sarafidis & Tom Wansbeek, 2020. "Celebrating 40 Years of Panel Data Analysis: Past, Present and Future," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 6/20, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    6. Saxonhouse, Gary R, 1977. "Regressions from Samples Having Different Characteristics," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 59(2), pages 234-237, May.
    7. Kelejian, Harry H. & Prucha, Ingmar R., 2010. "Specification and estimation of spatial autoregressive models with autoregressive and heteroskedastic disturbances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(1), pages 53-67, July.
    8. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    9. Davies, Ronald B. & Studnicka, Zuzanna, 2018. "The heterogeneous impact of Brexit: Early indications from the FTSE," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 1-17.
    10. O'Hara, Maureen & Shaw, Wayne, 1990. "Deposit Insurance and Wealth Effects: The Value of Being "Too Big to Fail."," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1587-1600, December.
    11. Dewenter, Kathryn L. & Riddick, Leigh A., 2018. "What's the value of a TBTF guaranty? Evidence from the G-SII designation for insurance companies✰," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 70-85.
    12. Demetris Christodoulou & Vasilis Sarafidis, 2017. "Regression clustering for panel-data models with fixed effects," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 17(2), pages 314-329, June.
    13. Moenninghoff, Sebastian C. & Ongena, Steven & Wieandt, Axel, 2015. "The perennial challenge to counter Too-Big-to-Fail in banking: Empirical evidence from the new international regulation dealing with Global Systemically Important Banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 221-236.
    14. James P. Lesage, 2008. "An Introduction to Spatial Econometrics," Revue d'économie industrielle, De Boeck Université, vol. 0(3), pages 19-44.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Peter H. Egger & Jiaqing Zhu, 2022. "How COVID‐19 travels in‐ and outside of value chains and then affects the stock market: Evidence from China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 523-538, February.
    2. Tingting Lan & Liuguo Shao & Hua Zhang & Caijun Yuan, 2023. "The impact of pandemic on dynamic volatility spillover network of international stock markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2115-2144, November.
    3. Qi Li & Vasilis Sarafidis & Joakim Westerlund, 2021. "Essays in honor of Professor Badi H Baltagi," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 1-11, January.
    4. Li, Qi & Sarafidis, Vasilis & Westerlund, Joakim, 2020. "Essays in Honor of Professor Badi H Baltagi: Editorial," MPRA Paper 104751, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peter H. Egger & Jiaqing Zhu, 2022. "How COVID‐19 travels in‐ and outside of value chains and then affects the stock market: Evidence from China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 523-538, February.
    2. Holger Breinlich & Elsa Leromain & Dennis Novy & Thomas Sampson & Ahmed Usman, 2018. "The Economic Effects of Brexit: Evidence from the Stock Market," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 581-623, December.
    3. Gu, Xin & Zhang, Weiqiang & Cheng, Sang, 2021. "How do investors in Chinese stock market react to external uncertainty? An event study to the Sino-US disputes," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    4. Andrew N. Greenland & Mihai Ion & John W. Lopresti & Peter K. Schott, 2020. "Using Equity Market Reactions to Infer Exposure to Trade Liberalization," NBER Working Papers 27510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Breinlich, Holger, 2015. "The Effect of Trade Liberalization on Firm-Level Profits: An Event-Study Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 11011, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Peter H Egger & Jiaqing Zhu, 2020. "The US–Chinese trade war: an event study of stock-market responses," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 35(103), pages 519-559.
    7. Menz, Klaus-Michael, 2010. "Market discipline and the evaluation of Euro financial bonds--An empirical analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 315-328, September.
    8. Bianconi, Marcelo & Esposito, Federico & Sammon, Marco, 2021. "Trade policy uncertainty and stock returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    9. Wael Bousselmi & Patrick Sentis & Marc Willinger, 2018. "Impact of the Brexit vote announcement on long-run market performance," CEE-M Working Papers hal-01954920, CEE-M, Universtiy of Montpellier, CNRS, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro.
    10. Breinlich, Holger, 2014. "Heterogeneous firm-level responses to trade liberalization: A test using stock price reactions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 270-285.
    11. Xiaosong Wang & Huan Wu & Le Li, 2022. "Trade policy and return on capital: An empirical analysis based on China's antidumping," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 865-892, January.
    12. António Miguel Martins & Ana Paula Serra, 2012. "Real Estate Market Risk in Bank Stock Returns: Evidence for 15 European Countries," CEF.UP Working Papers 1203, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    13. Andreas Dür & Lisa Lechner, 2023. "Winners and Losers From Trade Agreements: Stock Market Reactions to TPP and TTIP," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 11(4), pages 200-211.
    14. Christiane Goodfellow & Dirk Schiereck & Steffen Wippler, 2013. "Are behavioural finance equity funds a superior investment? A note on fund performance and market efficiency," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 14(2), pages 111-119, April.
    15. Frederico Belo & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2010. "Cross-sectional Tobin's Q," NBER Working Papers 16336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. David Hirshleifer & Danling Jiang, 2010. "A Financing-Based Misvaluation Factor and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(9), pages 3401-3436.
    17. David J. Moore & David McMillan, 2016. "A look at the actual cost of capital of US firms," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1233628-123, December.
    18. Eun, Cheol & Lee, Kyuseok & Wei, Fengrong, 2023. "Dual role of the country factors in international asset pricing: The local factors and proxies for the global factors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    19. Lars Hornuf & Paul P. Momtaz & Rachel J. Nam & Ye Yuan, 2023. "Cybercrime on the Ethereum Blockchain," CESifo Working Paper Series 10598, CESifo.
    20. Constantinos Antoniou & John A. Doukas & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2016. "Investor Sentiment, Beta, and the Cost of Equity Capital," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(2), pages 347-367, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cumulative abnormal returns; Listed firms; Spillovers; Spatial and network models; Panel models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:60:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s00181-020-01979-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.